5245 Clayton Dr · Maple Plain, MN 55359

$439,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,689 sqft · Other public records · 149 Days on market

Built 1987 0.38 ac lot $260/sqft · 16% below area Est $580k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +1.1/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2-story home located in a wonderful family neighborhood! This 3BR/3BA residence features an open floor plan with numerous updates throughout and is in pristine, move-in condition. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers a spacious country-style kitchen, large deck, and private backyard - perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Conveniently located near parks, major highways, and Ridgedale Mall, within the award-winning Orono School District. Be the lucky Buyer!

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open floor plan
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COUNTRY-STYLE KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• PRIVATE BACKYARD
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• NEAR PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-21k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (71.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $140k (68.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (71.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#655 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Orono Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #9 of 301 in MN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orono Intermediate Elementary (math 73% / reading 75%, grade A, #39 of 857 statewide, top 5%, 637 students, 8% FRL); Orono Middle (math 59% / reading 70%, grade A-, #14 of 258 statewide, top 6%, 700 students, 12% FRL); Orono Senior High (math 57% / reading 78%, grade B, #18 of 471 statewide, top 4%, 947 students, 12% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $123,810 (71.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 72% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.32% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.43%
• DSCR: 0.22
• GRM: 26.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $579,668
• List price: $439,900
• Delta: -24.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -51.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-185,315
• Equity at exit: $65,591

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.50×
• Total profit: $-308,400
• Equity at exit: $38,035

Cash invested: $123,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55359

• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 26.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$401 /mo · $4,814/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-1,789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,660

Max offer price $123,810

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,540	-5% $-1,665	+0% $-1,789	+5% $-1,914	+10% $-2,038
Rent	-10% $-1,900	-5% $-1,844	+0% $-1,789	+5% $-1,734	+10% $-1,679
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,568	-0.5pp $-1,677	base $-1,789	+0.5pp $-1,903	+1.0pp $-2,019

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,975
• Closing costs: $13,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5285 Manchester Dr Maple Plain, MN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	0d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $439,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,900 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,900 Active 139 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $439,900 Active 138 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $439,900 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $439,900 Active 134 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $439,900 Active 133 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,900 Active 132 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,900 Active 131 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    price $449,900 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home located in a wonderful family neighborhood! This 3BR/3BA residence features an open floor plan with numerous updates throughout and is in pristine, move-in condition. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers a spacious country-style kitchen, large deck, and private backyard - perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Conveniently located near parks, major highways, and Ridgedale Mall, within the award-winning Orono School District. Be the lucky Buyer!

15. 2026-02-09
    price $459,900 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home located in a wonderful family neighborhood! This 3BR/3BA residence features an open floor plan with numerous updates throughout and is in pristine, move-in condition. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers a spacious country-style kitchen, large deck, and private backyard - perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Conveniently located near parks, major highways, and Ridgedale Mall, within the award-winning Orono School District. Be the lucky Buyer!

16. 2026-01-20
    listed $469,900 Active 476-char remark

    Show marketing remark (476 chars)

    Beautiful 2-story home located in a wonderful family neighborhood! This 3BR/3BA residence features an open floor plan with numerous updates throughout and is in pristine, move-in condition. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, it offers a spacious country-style kitchen, large deck, and private backyard - perfect for entertaining or relaxing. Conveniently located near parks, major highways, and Ridgedale Mall, within the award-winning Orono School District. Be the lucky Buyer!

17. 2025-12-15
    historical
18. 2025-11-12
    listed $469,900 Active
19. 2019-11-20
    soldstatus $3,160,632
20. 2019-01-29
    historical
21. 2018-11-28
    historical Contingent - Application Received
22. 2018-11-19
    listed $1,800 Active
23. 2018-03-06
    soldstatus $278,000
24. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $278,000 Sold
25. 2018-02-13
    status Pending
26. 2018-01-30
    historical Contingent - Inspection
27. 2017-12-30
    listed $294,900 Active
28. 2017-12-14
    historical
29. 2017-12-05
    listed $289,900 Active
30. 2013-01-14
    soldstatus $219,000
31. 2012-12-14
    soldstatus $219,000
32. 2012-11-16
    historical
33. 2012-10-16
    listed $219,000
34. 2011-09-27
    historical
35. 2011-04-13
    listed $229,900
36. 1987-01-01
    soldstatus $113,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,814 · $401/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,871 · $406/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,740
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,641
• − Property taxes: −$4,814
• − Insurance: −$2,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$12,797
• Taxable loss: −$30,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,294
• After-tax cash flow: $-14,178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orono Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2725080
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $93,850
• Composite: 62.7/100
• National rank: #673
• State rank: #9 of 301 in MN

Livability — Maple Plain

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #655
• US rank: #15738

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maple Plain, MN
• Population (ZIP): 7,068

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -159.80%
• Current HPI: 261.8218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+295.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $449,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $459,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-20 Listed $469,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-12 Listed $469,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $3,160,632 Public Records
• 2019-01-29 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-28 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-19 Listed $1,800 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-06 Sold (Public Records) $278,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $278,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-13 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-30 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-30 Listed $294,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-05 Listed $289,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $219,000 Public Records
• 2012-12-14 Sold (MLS) $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-16 Listed $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-13 Listed $229,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $113,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,814 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.