2202 Jones Rd · Baytown, TX 77521

$84,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1940 Poor condition 0.34 ac lot $83/sqft · 48% below area Est $163k · 48% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL INVESTORS!! AN AMAZING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 15,000 SQ FT lot ready for residential renovations or new development. Take advantage of an unbelievably price! Conveniently located near interstate-10 freeway. Call agent for details!

Key facts

• New development
• Oversized lot
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• RESIDENTIAL RENOVATIONS
• NEW DEVELOPMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $723 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.5% vs local median 4.3% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harlem El (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 667 students, 90% FRL); Highlands J H (math 46% / reading 37%, grade F, #595 of 1,662 statewide, top 37%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Goose Creek Memorial (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #924 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 2,223 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 61% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 972 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 139d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,724 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.45%
• DSCR: 2.62
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,939
• List price: $84,999
• Delta: -36.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1811 S Canal St	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,016 (-0%)	23mo	$99,000	$97	64
2427 Hodges St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	934 (-8%)	11mo	$100,000	$107	54
7906 Spivey Rd	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,164 (+14%)	9mo	$169,900	$146	47
7806 Richards St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+19%)	16mo	$139,000	$114	46
7506 Harlem St	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	856 (-16%)	17mo	$102,000	$119	40
2414 Camillia St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	10mo	$210,000	$182	28
2502 Foxglove St	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,214 (+19%)	18mo	$188,900	$156	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $29,693
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $74,903
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $184,350 ($166/sqft)
• Median days on market: 184 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77521

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 972
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,219/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $84,999

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $771	-5% $747	+0% $723	+5% $699	+10% $675
Rent	-10% $584	-5% $653	+0% $723	+5% $792	+10% $862
Rate	-1.0pp $766	-0.5pp $745	base $723	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $678

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2515 Harris St Baytown, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$2,000	$1.81	139d	1	0.49mi
7127 Kings Dr Baytown, TX	3.0	1.5	1463	$1,631	$1.11	49d	1	0.88mi
508 Julie Ln Highlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,750	$1.37	139d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $84,999 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $84,999 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $104,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $104,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $104,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $104,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $104,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $104,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $104,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $104,000 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $104,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $104,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $104,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    statusdays on market $104,000 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    remarks 261-char remark
16. 2026-09-04
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $104,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
17. 2026-07-10
    days on market $104,999 Pending 104 DOM
18. 2026-07-09
    days on market $104,999 Pending 103 DOM
19. 2026-07-08
    status $104,999 Pending 101 DOM
20. 2026-07-07
    days on market $104,999 Active 101 DOM
21. 2026-07-06
    days on market $104,999 Active 100 DOM
22. 2026-07-06
    days on market $104,999 Active 99 DOM
23. 2026-07-05
    days on market $104,999 Active 98 DOM
24. 2026-07-03
    days on market $104,999 Active 97 DOM
25. 2026-07-02
    days on market $104,999 Active 96 DOM
26. 2026-07-01
    days on market $104,999 Active 95 DOM
27. 2026-06-30
    days on market $104,999 Active 94 DOM
28. 2026-06-29
    days on market $104,999 Active 93 DOM
29. 2026-06-28
    days on market $104,999 Active 92 DOM
30. 2026-06-27
    days on market $104,999 Active 91 DOM
31. 2026-06-26
    days on market $104,999 Active 90 DOM
32. 2026-06-24
    days on market $104,999 Active 88 DOM
33. 2026-06-22
    days on market $104,999 Active 86 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $104,999 Active 85 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $104,999 Active 82 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $104,999 Active 81 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $104,999 Active 80 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $104,999 Active 79 DOM
39. 2026-06-13
    days on market $104,999 Active 77 DOM
40. 2026-06-09
    days on market $104,999 Active 73 DOM
41. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,999 Active 71 DOM
42. 2026-06-04
    days on market $104,999 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,999 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,999 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,999 Active 65 DOM
46. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,999 Active 64 DOM
47. 2026-05-15
    status Pending 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS!! AN AMAZING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 15,000 SQ FT lot ready for residential renovations or new development. Take advantage of an unbelievably price! Conveniently located near interstate-10 freeway. Call agent for details!

48. 2026-05-07
    price $104,999 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS!! AN AMAZING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 15,000 SQ FT lot ready for residential renovations or new development. Take advantage of an unbelievably price! Conveniently located near interstate-10 freeway. Call agent for details!

49. 2026-03-28
    listed $124,990 Active 243-char remark

    Show marketing remark (243 chars)

    CALLING ALL INVESTORS!! AN AMAZING INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY. 15,000 SQ FT lot ready for residential renovations or new development. Take advantage of an unbelievably price! Conveniently located near interstate-10 freeway. Call agent for details!

50. 1989-10-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,219 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,219
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $7,844
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,883
• After-tax cash flow: $6,792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $51,000–$91,800 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior and landscaping. Significant structural and aesthetic issues need addressing to make it move-in ready.

Deferred maintenance Est. $30,000–$90,000 screening

• Major Roof (roof) — Significant damage and missing sections
• Major Windows (windows) — Broken and boarded-up windows
• Major Exterior (exterior) — Significant structural damage and missing siding

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage to the roof
• Major siding — Severe damage to the exterior siding
• Major exterior walls — Exposed structural elements and missing sections
• Major fencing — Damaged and incomplete fencing

Value-add opportunities

• Both repair and replace roof — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both repair and replace siding — New siding will enhance the home's curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both repair and replace fencing — A new, complete fence will improve the home's security and aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — Well-maintained landscaping will enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harlem El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Highlands J H F TX #595/1,662 Nat'l #5,602/14,009 High Goose Creek Memorial F TX #924/1,632 Nat'l #9,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,038
• Household income: $73,629
• Rent vs Own: 41.8% rent · 58.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 28% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.80%
• Current HPI: 246.1892
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $104,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-28 Listed $124,990 HARMLS
• 1989-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,219 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.