2801 Chancellorsville Dr #1208 · Tallahassee, FL 32312

$163,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,118 sqft · Condo public records · 406 Days on market

Built 2004 $502/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This unit is desirable right at the ground floor ~ enjoy the Clubhouse for family celebrations, gym, tennis court, and separate Movie room~ the location of this Condo unit you can park right on front of your back patio next to next to the Clubhouse entrance~ new carpet ~ Zero yard work~ Barrington Park location is so convenient to walk to Restaurants, Walmart, public Library, and many more places

Key facts

• Tennis courts
• No shared walls
• Energy efficiency

Tags

• GROUND FLOOR CORNER CONDO
• WALK-OUT GROUND-LEVEL PATIO
• NO SHARED WALLS
• PARTIALLY BELOW-GROUND DESIGN
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• TENNIS COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property is for sale
• HOA & community: Association fee listed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking space(s)
• Home design: Single-story; Condominium unit (address indicates unit #1208)
• Construction: Lot approximately 0.24 acre
• Exterior features: Private pool; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 — 14 x 11
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($756/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $143k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hawks Rise Elementary School (math 83% / reading 82%, grade A+, #70 of 2,144 statewide, top 4%, 805 students, 13% FRL); Deerlake Middle School (math 81% / reading 73%, grade A, #28 of 571 statewide, top 5%, 894 students, 16% FRL); Lawton Chiles High School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B, #69 of 667 statewide, top 11%, 1,900 students, 12% FRL) — zoned schools average 14% FRL vs 45% district-wide (31 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+25 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Leon average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.66%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-24,482
• Equity at exit: $24,304

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-24,477
• Equity at exit: $14,093

Cash invested: $45,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32312

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$855
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,026/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$502
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $163,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $155	-5% $109	+0% $63	+5% $17	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-20	+0% $63	+5% $146	+10% $229
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $104	base $63	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,750
• Closing costs: $4,890
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2948 Whirlaway Trl Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$2,150	$1.54	23d	1	1.17mi
4843 Anhinga Ln Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	16d	1	1.36mi
3335 Rhea Rd Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1117	$2,040	$1.83	16d	15	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $502 · $6,024/yr
• Likely covers: gym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $163,000 Active 406 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $163,000 Active 403 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $163,000 Active 402 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $163,000 Active 401 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $163,000 Active 400 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $163,000 Active 398 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $163,000 Active 395 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $163,000 Active 394 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $163,000 Active 393 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $163,000 Active 392 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $163,000 Active 389 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $163,000 Active 388 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $163,000 Active 387 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $163,000 Active 386 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $163,000 Active 385 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $163,000 Active 384 DOM
17. 2025-10-27
    price $163,000
18. 2025-05-11
    listed $173,000 Active
19. 2021-01-29
    soldstatus $160,000
20. 2021-01-28
    soldstatus $160,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This unit is desirable right at the ground floor ~ enjoy the Clubhouse for family celebrations, gym, tennis court, and separate Movie room~ the location of this Condo unit you can park right on front of your back patio next to next to the Clubhouse entrance~ new carpet ~ Zero yard work~ Barrington Park location is so convenient to walk to Restaurants, Walmart, public Library, and many more places

21. 2021-01-20
    listed $175,000 399-char remark

    Show marketing remark (399 chars)

    This unit is desirable right at the ground floor ~ enjoy the Clubhouse for family celebrations, gym, tennis court, and separate Movie room~ the location of this Condo unit you can park right on front of your back patio next to next to the Clubhouse entrance~ new carpet ~ Zero yard work~ Barrington Park location is so convenient to walk to Restaurants, Walmart, public Library, and many more places

22. 2014-12-31
    soldstatus $125,000
23. 2009-12-29
    soldstatus $10,250,000
24. 2009-10-23
    soldstatus $21,800,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,026 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,162
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,131
• − Property taxes: −$2,026
• − Insurance: −$815
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − HOA: −$6,024
• − Depreciation: −$4,742
• Taxable loss: −$1,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$384
• After-tax cash flow: $1,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tallahassee, FL
• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,216
• Household income: $123,032
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 630.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.79%
• Current HPI: 240.8961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.85%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $163,000 CATRS
• 2025-05-11 Listed $173,000 CATRS
• 2021-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $160,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-28 Sold (MLS) $160,000 CATRS
• 2021-01-20 Listed $175,000 CATRS
• 2014-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2009-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $10,250,000 Public Records
• 2009-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $21,800,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,026 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.