2571 Tyrell · Jennings, MO 63136

$3,120,000

None bd · 7396.0 ba · 53,800 sqft · MultiFamily · 72 Days on market

Built 1963 4.33 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 86 units. confirmed

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks

Carmel Hills Apartments I & II is an 86-unit apartment community located in St. Louis, Missouri. Built in 1963, the Property offers an investor the rare opportunity to acquire a stabilized asset with proven operating performance and tremendous upside potential. Most of the units are in classic or near classic condition, allowing new ownership the opportunity to push rents through further continued unit upgrades or increasing in-place rents to market rate. Carmel Hills I features all 2-bedroom apartment homes and Carmel Hills II features all 1-bedroom apartment homes. Unit amenities include washer/ fully-equipped kitchens, dryer hookups, walk-in closets, extra storage space, and coin o

Key facts

• 4.33 acre lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 43×2bd/1.0ba + 43×1bd/1.0ba units multifamily listed at $3.12M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45k ($536k/yr) — positive. Per door: $519/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($84k rent vs $3.12M).
• Recommended offer: $2.93M (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 11.9% in Jennings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#208 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, commute A-, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jennings (suburban): math 8% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #315 of 324 in MO (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 86% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Northview Elem. (math 3% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,022 of 1,115 statewide, top 92%, 524 students, 100% FRL); Rose Johnson Jennings Jr. High (math 10% / reading 23%, grade F, #357 of 391 statewide, top 91%, 361 students, 100% FRL); Jennings High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #497 of 521 statewide, top 96%, 691 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $83,886/mo this rent would consume 2446% of the median local household income ($41k/yr) (locally 3085% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $140k of equity ($22k loan paydown + $118k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $874k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$226k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($2.93M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $2,932,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.41%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.79% appreciation · 4.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.03×
• Total profit: $3,522,354
• Equity at exit: $1,543,739

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 10.92×
• Total profit: $8,666,809
• Equity at exit: $2,494,947

Cash invested: $873,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63136

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 250.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $83,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,362
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,900 /mo · $46,800/yr
• Insurance: −$1,300
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$17,616
• Net cashflow: $44,642

Break-even live

Break-even rent $27,377

Max offer price $3,120,000

Occupancy floor 42%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46,798	-5% $45,720	+0% $44,642	+5% $43,564	+10% $42,486
Rent	-10% $38,015	-5% $41,328	+0% $44,642	+5% $47,955	+10% $51,269
Rate	-1.0pp $46,213	-0.5pp $45,435	base $44,642	+0.5pp $43,833	+1.0pp $43,011

86-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 43× units	2	1	$44,591
▸ 43× units	1	1	$39,302
Total (86 units)			$83,886

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $780,000
• Closing costs: $93,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-01
   listed $3,120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $1,006,632
• − Mortgage interest: −$174,769
• − Property taxes: −$46,800
• − Insurance: −$16,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$80,531
• − Management: −$80,531
• − Depreciation: −$90,764
• Taxable income: $516,841
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$124,042
• After-tax cash flow: $411,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jennings
• NCES district ID: 2916290
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $30,595
• Composite: 11.04/100
• National rank: #9739
• State rank: #315 of 324 in MO

Livability — Jennings

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #10499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jennings, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,929
• Household income: $41,154
• Rent vs Own: 53.1% rent · 46.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3085.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.79%
• Current HPI: 420.28
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.97%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Listed $3,120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid