Cardinal Plan · Northfield, MN 55057

$210,750

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · Townhouse · 34 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Construction is slated to begin July 2026, with estimated occupancy in Fall/Winter 2027. Contact Gracewin today to learn about pricing and payment options, how to reserve your favorite unit with only 20% of the share payment down before construction begins, and how you can personalize your finishes at no additional cost! HOME FEATURES: - Open concept floor plan with spacious living area - Reach-in closet by entrance - In-unit washer and dryer - Quartz countertops in kitchen (standard) - Dishwasher and microwave - Under cabinet lights in kitchen - Single-level kitchen island with breakfast bar seating - En suite master bath - Walk-in closets in both bedrooms - Balcony or walk-ou

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Under cabinet lights
• En suite master bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• IN UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTS
• SINGLE LEVEL KITCHEN ISLAND
• EN SUITE MASTER BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active; List price: 210750

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Home design: New construction plan; Plan name: Cardinal
• Exterior features: Address: 1100 Bluebell Rd, Northfield MN 55057

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Cardinal; Living area of 1328

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $211k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-97 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 2.8% in Northfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#28 in MN, #872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northfield Public School District (town): math 57% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #35 of 301 in MN (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Greenvale Park Elementary (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #265 of 857 statewide, top 35%, 496 students, 32% FRL); Northfield Middle (math 53% / reading 64%, grade B, #29 of 258 statewide, top 12%, 846 students, 26% FRL); Northfield Senior High (math 51% / reading 67%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 1,246 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $172,020 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.98%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-40,334
• Equity at exit: $31,424

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-43,012
• Equity at exit: $18,222

Cash invested: $59,010 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55057

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,105
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$263 /mo · $3,161/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $-97

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,844

Max offer price $196,643

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $48	-5% $-25	+0% $-97	+5% $-170	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-165	+0% $-97	+5% $-30	+10% $38
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-44	base $-97	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,688
• Closing costs: $6,322
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1180 Highland Ave Northfield, MN	2.0	3.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	46d	1	0.60mi
705 Grundhoefer Ct Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,650	$1.18	6d	1	0.79mi
705 Grundhoefer Ct Unit Na Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,575	$1.12	0d	1	0.79mi
801 Kraewood Dr Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	712	$2,100	$2.95	0d	11	0.92mi
501 1st St W Unit 503 Northfield, MN	2.0	1.0	875	$1,475	$1.69	17d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $210,750 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $210,750 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,750 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,750 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,750 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,750 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,750 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,750 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,750 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,750 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,750 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,750 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,750 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,750 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,750 Active 12 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,642
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,161
• − Insurance: −$1,054
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$6,131
• Taxable loss: −$4,812
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,155
• After-tax cash flow: $-15/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This townhouse is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. Personalization options and smart home features can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Personalize finishes at no additional cost — Enhances both resale and rental appeal
• Both Add smart home features — Improves both resale and rental appeal
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances both resale and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Personalize finishes at no additional cost — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves both resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both Install smart locks — Enhances both resale and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northfield Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2723880
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $68,475
• Composite: 52.82/100
• National rank: #1538
• State rank: #35 of 301 in MN

Livability — Northfield

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #872

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Northfield, MN
• County: Rice County · 56,558 people
• City population: 25,650
• Metro: Faribault-Northfield, MN
• Population (ZIP): 25,650
• Household income: $92,622
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 310.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.42%
• Current HPI: 242.4818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Faribault-Northfield, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B