104 W Paradise Dr · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1972 8,398 sqft lot $103/sqft · at area comps Est $156k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

What a Little Gem this one is! Looking for a Home close to the water? Need an adorable Lake Vacation Property to visit on the weekends? This Property is one that will have you wanting to take a seat and grab your cold glass of lemon aid as soon as you step out of the car. The landscaping is inviting and well thought out. From the water feature at the corner to the firepit seating area you will want to spend as much time here as possible. Don't let the age fool you, come into a large living area full of natural light and just a stone's throw from the updated kitchen and dining area. Find Stainless steel appliances and Gas Range in the Kitchen and a charming built in Hutch in the dining room for extra storage. Home has 2 Very nice clean updated Bathrooms, 2 guest rooms and Large Primary Bedroom. Lake access just down the road for your boating needs. Don't overlook this Beautiful home, Call today!

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 2-car carport
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• 2-CAR CARPORT
• SMALL BARN
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 2-space carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1972; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $128 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $133k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.4% in Westwood Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity J H (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 280 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 50% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $261 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-775 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 10646% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,209 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.65%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,625
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -3.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
104 W Paradise Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	2mo	$119,900	$82	99
191 W Enchantment Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	2mo	$187,000	$128	94
272 Lakewood Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	0mo	$29,900	$19	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $94
• Equity at exit: $39,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $26,044
• Equity at exit: $44,750

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $128

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,170

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $170	+0% $128	+5% $85	+10% $43
Rent	-10% $22	-5% $75	+0% $128	+5% $180	+10% $233
Rate	-1.0pp $203	-0.5pp $166	base $128	+0.5pp $89	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $149,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-14
    listed $1,395
19. 2026-05-13
    listed $149,900 Active 618-char remark
20. 2026-05-06
    soldstatus Closed 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    What a Little Gem this one is! Looking for a Home close to the water? Need an adorable Lake Vacation Property to visit on the weekends? This Property is one that will have you wanting to take a seat and grab your cold glass of lemon aid as soon as you step out of the car. The landscaping is inviting and well thought out. From the water feature at the corner to the firepit seating area you will want to spend as much time here as possible. Don't let the age fool you, come into a large living area full of natural light and just a stone's throw from the updated kitchen and dining area. Find Stainless steel appliances and Gas Range in the Kitchen and a charming built in Hutch in the dining room for extra storage. Home has 2 Very nice clean updated Bathrooms, 2 guest rooms and Large Primary Bedroom. Lake access just down the road for your boating needs. Don't overlook this Beautiful home, Call today!

21. 2026-03-17
    status Pending 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    What a Little Gem this one is! Looking for a Home close to the water? Need an adorable Lake Vacation Property to visit on the weekends? This Property is one that will have you wanting to take a seat and grab your cold glass of lemon aid as soon as you step out of the car. The landscaping is inviting and well thought out. From the water feature at the corner to the firepit seating area you will want to spend as much time here as possible. Don't let the age fool you, come into a large living area full of natural light and just a stone's throw from the updated kitchen and dining area. Find Stainless steel appliances and Gas Range in the Kitchen and a charming built in Hutch in the dining room for extra storage. Home has 2 Very nice clean updated Bathrooms, 2 guest rooms and Large Primary Bedroom. Lake access just down the road for your boating needs. Don't overlook this Beautiful home, Call today!

22. 2026-03-05
    listed $119,900 Active 907-char remark

    Show marketing remark (907 chars)

    What a Little Gem this one is! Looking for a Home close to the water? Need an adorable Lake Vacation Property to visit on the weekends? This Property is one that will have you wanting to take a seat and grab your cold glass of lemon aid as soon as you step out of the car. The landscaping is inviting and well thought out. From the water feature at the corner to the firepit seating area you will want to spend as much time here as possible. Don't let the age fool you, come into a large living area full of natural light and just a stone's throw from the updated kitchen and dining area. Find Stainless steel appliances and Gas Range in the Kitchen and a charming built in Hutch in the dining room for extra storage. Home has 2 Very nice clean updated Bathrooms, 2 guest rooms and Large Primary Bedroom. Lake access just down the road for your boating needs. Don't overlook this Beautiful home, Call today!

23. 2025-04-01
    historical
24. 2024-06-11
    price $150,000
25. 2024-04-21
    listed $155,000 Active
26. 2013-07-08
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,830/yr (+$152/mo · 200.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,279
• − Management: −$1,279
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$238
• After-tax cash flow: $1,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.1% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $1,345 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed for Rent $1,395 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $119,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-21 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2013-07-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $914 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.