25252 Leather Leaf Ct · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$268,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,418 sqft lot $122/sqft · at area comps Est $265k · at est. $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 69459591 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Epic floorplan! This beautifully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 SF of spacious living. The open-concept first floor seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features generous counter space, a large pantry, and convenient access to the utility room, plus a powder bath near the entry for guests. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the first-floor primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room or second living area along with three secondary bedrooms sharing a full bath. A covered patio provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation or gatherings. Located in a quiet community just three miles east of the Aggie Expressway/249.

Key facts

• Large pantry
• Walk in closet
• En suite bath

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• LARGE PANTRY
• POWDER BATH NEAR ENTRY
• FIRST FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-772/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $232,121 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $264,556
• List price: $268,000
• Delta: 1.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25227 Leather Leaf Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$272,000	$123	97
25291 Leather Leaf Ct	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-0%)	3mo	$274,990	$125	93
25243 Leather Leaf Ct	0.03mi	4/2.5	2,101 (-5%)	1mo	$265,000	$126	90
25460 Blossom Ct	0.15mi	4/3.0	2,120 (-4%)	0mo	$259,900	$123	84
25522 Blossom Ct	0.13mi	4/3.0	2,084 (-5%)	2mo	$295,848	$142	82
25323 Yellowbells Pl	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,125 (-4%)	1mo	$312,923	$147	80
25446 Carnation Ct	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,979 (-10%)	1mo	$270,990	$137	76
25319 Yellowbells Pl	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,049 (-7%)	2mo	$279,135	$136	75
25280 Leather Leaf Ct	0.05mi	4/2.5	1,881 (-15%)	2mo	$261,990	$139	72
25456 Blossom Ct	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,932 (-12%)	0mo	$264,900	$137	70
25564 Blossom Ct	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,881 (-15%)	1mo	$263,990	$140	68
25494 Blossom Ct	0.12mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,880 (-15%)	0mo	$276,403	$147	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-53,380
• Equity at exit: $39,960

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-74,557
• Equity at exit: $23,172

Cash invested: $75,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$335 /mo · $4,020/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,403

Max offer price $258,691

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $121	-5% $28	+0% $-64	+5% $-157	+10% $-250
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-156	+0% $-64	+5% $27	+10% $119
Rate	-1.0pp $71	-0.5pp $4	base $-64	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-204

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,000
• Closing costs: $8,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $268,000 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $268,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $268,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $268,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $268,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $268,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $268,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $268,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $268,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $278,650 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $278,650 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $278,650 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $278,650 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $278,650 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    status Active 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69459591 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Epic floorplan! This beautifully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 SF of spacious living. The open-concept first floor seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features generous counter space, a large pantry, and convenient access to the utility room, plus a powder bath near the entry for guests. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the first-floor primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room or second living area along with three secondary bedrooms sharing a full bath. A covered patio provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation or gatherings. Located in a quiet community just three miles east of the Aggie Expressway/249.

16. 2026-05-14
    price $278,650 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69459591 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Epic floorplan! This beautifully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 SF of spacious living. The open-concept first floor seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features generous counter space, a large pantry, and convenient access to the utility room, plus a powder bath near the entry for guests. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the first-floor primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room or second living area along with three secondary bedrooms sharing a full bath. A covered patio provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation or gatherings. Located in a quiet community just three miles east of the Aggie Expressway/249.

17. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69459591 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Epic floorplan! This beautifully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 SF of spacious living. The open-concept first floor seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features generous counter space, a large pantry, and convenient access to the utility room, plus a powder bath near the entry for guests. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the first-floor primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room or second living area along with three secondary bedrooms sharing a full bath. A covered patio provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation or gatherings. Located in a quiet community just three miles east of the Aggie Expressway/249.

18. 2026-03-14
    listed $271,000 Active 979-char remark

    Show marketing remark (979 chars)

    MLS# 69459591 - Built by Imagination Homes - Ready Now! ~ The Epic floorplan! This beautifully designed two-story home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 SF of spacious living. The open-concept first floor seamlessly connects the family room, dining area, and kitchen—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features generous counter space, a large pantry, and convenient access to the utility room, plus a powder bath near the entry for guests. Tucked privately at the rear of the home, the first-floor primary suite offers a relaxing retreat with a spacious bedroom, walk-in closet, and en-suite bath with dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. Upstairs, enjoy a versatile game room or second living area along with three secondary bedrooms sharing a full bath. A covered patio provides the perfect space for outdoor relaxation or gatherings. Located in a quiet community just three miles east of the Aggie Expressway/249.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,855
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,012
• − Property taxes: −$4,020
• − Insurance: −$1,340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,228
• − Management: −$2,228
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,796
• Taxable loss: −$5,323
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,277
• After-tax cash flow: $505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a good condition with no visible repairs needed. It has a good resale and rental value with potential for minor updates to enhance curb appeal and functionality.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $278,650 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $271,000 HARMLS