8165 Mary Payton Dr · Southaven, MS 38671

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2004 5,227 sqft lot Est $259k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +12.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW CONSTRUCTION! WOODCHASE 1400 PLAN $10,000 Builders Bonus if closed by 12/31/04

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Convenient location
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached concrete garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single family residence (house); One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: owner)
• Exterior features: Patio; Private yard; Front yard; Fenced yard (privacy, full)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination of flooring types
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (forced air); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Insulated windows; Insulated doors; Fireplace in the great room; Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($503/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 5.2% in Southaven — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#107 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southaven Elementary (math 20% / reading 23%, grade F, #239 of 375 statewide, top 64%, 684 students, 100% FRL); Southaven Middle School (math 33% / reading 25%, grade F, #90 of 179 statewide, top 52%, 1,456 students, 100% FRL); Southaven High School (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #88 of 197 statewide, top 45%, 1,850 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 43% district-wide (56 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Desoto County School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,612 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.78%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,192
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8112 Green Valley Cv	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,321 (-8%)	3mo	$199,900	$151	78
1620 Cresent Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-8%)	2mo	$250,000	$190	71
8274 Willow Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,314 (-8%)	6mo	$252,000	$192	69
1562 Sarah Ann Cv	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,356 (-5%)	8mo	$230,000	$170	67
8027 Switzer Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,516 (+6%)	4mo	$284,900	$188	64
8028 Switzer Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+8%)	5mo	$279,999	$181	59
7745 Callie Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+5%)	7mo	$291,800	$194	59
7927 Ironwood Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+11%)	4mo	$269,900	$169	55
1854 Brentwood Trce	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+8%)	5mo	$262,900	$171	51
7414 Tack Cv	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,529 (+7%)	8mo	$265,000	$173	50
1562 Cambria Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+14%)	7mo	$295,800	$181	46
8091 Fitler Cv #8091	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,609 (+12%)	8mo	$270,000	$168	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-34,307
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-25,221
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38671

• Home prices YoY: -18.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 196
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,846 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $230,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $107	+0% $42	+5% $-23	+10% $-88
Rent	-10% $-104	-5% $-31	+0% $42	+5% $115	+10% $188
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $100	base $42	+0.5pp $-18	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8181 Martin Dr Southaven, MS	4.0	2.0	1750	$1,970	$1.13	19d	1	0.08mi
8161 Loden Cv Southaven, MS	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,040	$1.11	46d	1	0.18mi
8274 Park Pike Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1365	$1,765	$1.29	4d	1	0.20mi
1708 Cherry Rd Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1606	$1,780	$1.11	14d	1	0.21mi
8035 Park Pike Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,695	$1.26	5d	1	0.31mi
7896 Nature Walk Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,705	$1.19	16d	1	0.32mi
1688 Sarah Ann Dr W Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,695	$1.19	22d	1	0.33mi
7875 Sarah Ann Dr S Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1572	$1,800	$1.15	46d	1	0.33mi
1820 Mary Payton Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1699	$1,835	$1.08	46d	1	0.47mi
7902 Hemlock Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,999	$1.24	6d	1	0.47mi
8426 Linda Shore Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1780	$1,910	$1.07	6d	1	0.54mi
1865 Winners Cir N Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,890	$1.18	46d	1	0.58mi
1521 Miskelly Dr Unit 1 Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,065	$1.22	46d	1	0.61mi
1859 Winners Circle Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1773	$2,085	$1.18	0d	1	0.63mi
970 Millcreek Pl Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,550	$1.24	16d	1	0.94mi
875 Hackberry Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,525	$1.19	23d	1	1.00mi
863 Hackberry Dr Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,665	$1.11	5d	1	1.01mi
8709 Clark Ave Southaven, MS	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,175	$1.19	46d	1	1.05mi
818 Barrington Woods Cv Unit 817 Southaven, MS	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,395	$1.19	16d	1	1.05mi
818 Barrington Woods Cv Unit 769-6 Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	26d	1	1.05mi
817 Barrington Woods Cv Southaven, MS	2.0	1.5	1176	$1,395	$1.19	16d	1	1.06mi
845 Rockwall Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	1.5	1229	$1,450	$1.18	46d	1	1.07mi
2687 Sapper Ln Southaven, MS	4.0	2.0	1622	$2,065	$1.27	26d	1	1.08mi
769 Barrington Woods Cv Unit 6 Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	26d	1	1.11mi
7654 Stonycreek Cv Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,650	$1.28	23d	1	1.17mi
8375 Old Forge Rd Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,295	$1.20	6d	1	1.24mi
1104 Atterbury Cir S Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,645	$1.20	0d	1	1.26mi
8085 Creekwood Cir E Southaven, MS	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	46d	1	1.30mi
8743 Greenbrook Pkwy Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,590	$1.29	23d	1	1.33mi
8061 Creekwood Cir W Southaven, MS	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,550	$1.19	19d	1	1.36mi
8278 Lake Shore Dr W Southaven, MS	4.0	2.0	1584	$1,750	$1.10	16d	1	1.36mi
494 Windridge Pt Southaven, MS	3.0	2.0	1644	$2,013	$1.22	46d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-15
   status $230,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $230,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,817 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$442/yr (+$37/mo · 32.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,772
• − Management: −$1,772
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,490
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$838
• After-tax cash flow: $1,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Southaven

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #12584

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Southaven, MS
• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 53,755
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 37,319
• Household income: $61,843
• Rent vs Own: 35.5% rent · 64.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1583.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.08%
• Current HPI: 220.7875
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.20%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+73.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $230,000 MLSU
• 2018-01-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-03 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2004-08-31 Listed $132,495 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +14.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.