10149 Shamrock Lode · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$92,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 854 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 2019

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Clayton built home in 2019. With front porch and manual sun screens on the porch. Very high quality Luxury Vinyl Plank Flooring installed in 2024 in Living, Kitchen, Dining, Hall and Bathroom. Open concept living, kitchen and dining area. The property has a six foot perimeter wood fence, Nice large shed that matches the home, extra long carport that covers the patio area. Neighbors are friendly and the park is very quiet. Beautiful forest and ravine surrounds the park. Forest Springs Senior Community offers a very nice quality place to live and the neighbors are friendly and always there to help one another. The Beautifully remodeled community club house with billiards, kitchen, beautiful e

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2019
• Listed 87 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease: No (land lease amount listed separately)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water (water district); Public sewer; Cable available and connected; Individual gas meter; 220-volt service in kitchen and laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park (single wide); Clayton manufacturer, FAIRMONT 14522B model; Built in 2019; Updated/Remodeled
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Patio awning and carport awning; Covered patio and porch; Storage area and shed(s); Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven and built-in gas range; Built-in refrigerator; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Hood over range; Self-cleaning oven; Laminate and synthetic counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet and wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with double sinks and tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Dual-pane windows with coverings and screens; Covered patio and porch with steps and railings; Deck attached to living area; Storage areas and shed(s); Pets allowed (cats and dogs, size limits apply)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric hookup for laundry; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $959 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.7% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alta Sierra Elementary (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #354 of 1,571 statewide, top 24%, 319 students, 34% FRL); Magnolia Intermediate (math 24% / reading 51%, grade F, #166 of 498 statewide, top 34%, 379 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 256 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $642 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,326 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.23%
• DSCR: 2.97
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,218
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15329 Little Valley Rd #63	0.50mi	2/1.0	900 (+5%)	1mo	$46,500	$52	67
14338 State Highway 49 #19	0.51mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	5mo	$52,000	$65	61
14338 State Highway 49 #71	0.61mi	2/1.0	860 (+1%)	14mo	$67,500	$78	59
15329 Little Valley Rd #75	0.59mi	2/1.0	780 (-9%)	0mo	$52,000	$67	58
15329 Little Valley Rd	0.59mi	2/1.0	900 (+5%)	14mo	$52,000	$58	52
14338 State Hwy 49 #51	0.51mi	2/1.0	800 (-6%)	22mo	$57,000	$71	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.77×
• Total profit: $46,035
• Equity at exit: $13,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $118,832
• Equity at exit: $8,032

Cash invested: $26,012 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$487
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,394/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $959

Break-even live

Break-even rent $813

Max offer price $92,900

Occupancy floor 48%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,023	-5% $991	+0% $959	+5% $927	+10% $894
Rent	-10% $799	-5% $879	+0% $959	+5% $1,039	+10% $1,119
Rate	-1.0pp $1,005	-0.5pp $982	base $959	+0.5pp $935	+1.0pp $910

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,225
• Closing costs: $2,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $92,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $92,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,900 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,900 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,900 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $92,900 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $92,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $93,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $93,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $93,900 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $93,900 Active 66 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,204
• − Property taxes: −$1,394
• − Insurance: −$464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$2,703
• Taxable income: $10,659
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,558
• After-tax cash flow: $8,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B