106 Westlake Rd · Westwood Shores, TX 75862

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,048 sqft · Manufactured public records · 67 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1985 0.55 ac lot $54/sqft · 32% above area Est $83k · 32% over $229/mo HOA · 22% of rent ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for Space......this one has it. Manufactured Home has 3 consolidated lots, 3 Bedrooms + 4th Bedroom /Office/Craft Room, Oversize Carport, Screen Patio, Large Entry/Sunroom, Spacious Livingroom/Dining with Wood burning fireplace, Split floor plan, Primary Bedroom with walk in closet, step down into the 4th room/Bonus Room also leads to screen patio. 2 Storage buildings, Large front yard. Must see to appreciate.

Key facts

• Screen patio
• Oversize carport
• Bonus room

Tags

• OVERSIZE CARPORT
• SCREEN PATIO
• LARGE ENTRY SUNROOM
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• BONUS ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-238 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $68k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $104k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $68k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#914 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Trinity ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #682 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lansberry El (math 35% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,149 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 570 students, 91% FRL); Trinity J H (math 21% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 280 students, 91% FRL); Trinity H S (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,204 of 1,632 statewide, top 75%, 350 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 50% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 473 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $192 of equity ($761 loan paydown + $-569 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Trinity County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 92% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,022 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.26%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $83,152
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 32.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.52% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-20,797
• Equity at exit: $29,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-25,272
• Equity at exit: $32,839

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75862

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 473
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,042 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,506/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$229
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $-238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,342

Max offer price $68,022

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-175	-5% $-206	+0% $-238	+5% $-269	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-320	-5% $-279	+0% $-238	+5% $-196	+10% $-155
Rate	-1.0pp $-182	-0.5pp $-210	base $-238	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-295

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $229 · $2,748/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $110,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $110,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $110,000 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $110,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-04-13
    listed $125,000 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Looking for Space......this one has it. Manufactured Home has 3 consolidated lots, 3 Bedrooms + 4th Bedroom /Office/Craft Room, Oversize Carport, Screen Patio, Large Entry/Sunroom, Spacious Livingroom/Dining with Wood burning fireplace, Split floor plan, Primary Bedroom with walk in closet, step down into the 4th room/Bonus Room also leads to screen patio. 2 Storage buildings, Large front yard. Must see to appreciate.

20. 2026-01-31
    historical
21. 2025-09-13
    price $139,900
22. 2025-08-06
    listed $149,900 Active
23. 2025-06-05
    historical
24. 2025-05-30
    price $149,900
25. 2025-04-18
    status Active
26. 2025-04-06
    status Pending
27. 2025-03-20
    listed $160,000 Active
28. 2023-07-25
    historical
29. 2023-06-17
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,506 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 92% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,506
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − HOA: −$2,748
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$4,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,732/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Trinity ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843200
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,104
• Composite: 23.31/100
• National rank: #7919
• State rank: #682 of 826 in TX

Livability — Westwood Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #914
• US rank: #16347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Westwood Shores, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,030

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,746 people
• By 2030: 13,333 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 12,542 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 11,942 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 10,871 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 9,784 · -28.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+67.0) · D 16.2% · R 83.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.3pp toward R · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -67.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+67.0 2020: R+61.3 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.52%
• Current HPI: 174.6638
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-44.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-13 Price Changed $139,900 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-30 Price Changed $149,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-04-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-20 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2023-07-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-06-17 Listed $225,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,506 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.