1362 Alonda Ln NE · Lacey, WA 98516

$85,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 214 Days on market

Built 1973 $89/sqft · 69% above area ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Motivated Sellers!! Priced Reduce! Nicely updated home with a lovely open floor plan with a large living room area with windows along the front of home for extra light and viewing the natural setting. All of this nested in popular park with walking trails all around to enjoy with your pets or just take a stroll down to the coffee shop at the corner. Large covered carport provides 2 parking spots out of our NW weather. Good sized storage building attached to the carport will work for small shop & extra storage. The home is located on a corner lot and the landscaping provides ample privacy to enjoy your front porch in the evening under your covered patio. Easy access to Olympia/ Lac

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Storage building
• Large living room

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• LARGE COVERED CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING
• CORNER LOT
• AMPLE PRIVACY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.8% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 214 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 214 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.43%
• DSCR: 3.33
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,204
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 69.31%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1417 Alonda Ln NE	0.09mi	2/1.5	960 (0%)	13mo	$65,000	$68	85
2005 Alonda Ln NE	0.16mi	2/1.0	960 (0%)	23mo	$49,500	$52	72
4611 17th Ln NE #17	0.26mi	2/1.0	1,056 (+10%)	22mo	$142,500	$135	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 51.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.27×
• Total profit: $53,935
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.81×
• Total profit: $138,396
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98516

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $346/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$412
• Net cashflow: $1,040

Break-even live

Break-even rent $646

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5224 15th Ave NE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	881	$2,165	$2.46	14d	258	0.61mi
606 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$2,725	$2.82	14d	7	0.67mi
522 Lilly Rd NE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	781	$1,550	$1.98	14d	6	0.72mi
5499 15th Ave NE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	904	$2,106	$2.33	14d	26	0.73mi
3724 Ensign Rd NE Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,849	$2.01	14d	5	0.86mi
4444 6th Avenue SE Lacey, WA	1.0	1.0	532	$1,849	$3.47	14d	17	0.97mi
801 Lilly Rd NE Apt 123 Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	762	$1,700	$2.23	44d	1	0.98mi
4410 6th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$2,010	$2.05	14d	14	0.98mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 507 Olympia, WA	3.0	1.0	800	$1,900	$2.38	21d	1	1.01mi
122 Lilly Rd NE Unit 104 Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,700	$2.27	21d	1	1.01mi
510 Lilly Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	525	$1,525	$2.90	44d	2	1.10mi
501 Franz Anderson Rd SE Olympia, WA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,598	$2.22	14d	3	1.33mi
3806 12th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,775	$2.22	14d	3	1.44mi
1212 Willow St SE Unit 1212-I Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	871	$1,595	$1.83	21d	1	1.46mi
1224 Willow St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 214 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 213 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 212 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 211 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 208 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 205 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 204 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 197 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 196 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 195 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    price $85,000
17. 2026-01-06
    price $89,000
18. 2025-11-16
    listed $93,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $346 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$487/yr (+$41/mo · 140.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$346
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,883
• − Management: −$1,883
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $11,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,825
• After-tax cash flow: $9,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 29,177
• Household income: $98,892
• Rent vs Own: 34.4% rent · 65.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1202.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 14% Asian 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.16%
• Current HPI: 323.7121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.75%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $85,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $89,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-16 Listed $93,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $346 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.