28802 Birchlawn St · Garden City, MI 48135

$200,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,261 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2000 5,227 sqft lot Est $185k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT VALUE ON THIS 3 BEDROOM BRICK/VINYL RANCH. NEWER BUILT. GOOD PRICE. HAS DISCOLORATION. NEEDS SOME TENDER LOVING CARE.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed: cats and dogs
• Financial info:
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking:
• Security:
• Utilities: Public water; Gas water heater
• Home design: One-story residential home; Built in 2000; Basement present
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Basement foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Paved street access

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on entry level, approximately 13 x 10; Dining area on entry level, approximately 13 x 12; Dishwasher; Disposal; Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on entry level, approximately 14 x 13; Second bedroom on entry level, approximately 13 x 9; Third bedroom on entry level, approximately 11 wide
• Flooring: Ceramic in bathrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Ceramic flooring in both bathrooms; Both bathrooms on entry level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heat/fuel; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: 8 total rooms; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $43 ($515/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (7.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#53 in MI, #1,047 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute A; Watch: employment C-, schools D-.
• Garden City Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #365 of 540 in MI (top 68%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask is 898% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $200k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $184,374 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $185,367
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29438 Elmwood St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-7%)	1mo	$130,000	$110	68
28612 Donnelly St	0.37mi	3/1.5	1,363 (+8%)	2mo	$269,000	$197	68
5803 Deering St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,293 (+2%)	8mo	$190,000	$147	67
28626 Bock St	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,333 (+6%)	9mo	$190,000	$143	63
5851 Gilman St	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,368 (+8%)	8mo	$290,000	$212	60
6331 Helen St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,113 (-12%)	2mo	$225,000	$202	57
28979 Bock St	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,125 (-11%)	4mo	$239,000	$212	56
1722 Deering St	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (+5%)	0mo	$165,000	$125	56
6326 Lathers St	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,391 (+10%)	9mo	$184,000	$132	56
28627 Bridge St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-13%)	5mo	$175,000	$159	45
28854 Hennepin St	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,424 (+13%)	1mo	$178,500	$125	44
29578 Brown Ct St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-11%)	7mo	$160,000	$142	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-28,416
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-15,989
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48135

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,378/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,789

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5927 Lathers St Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,600	$1.60	2d	1	0.23mi
29061 Balmoral St Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	1850	$2,250	$1.22	17d	1	0.26mi
5839 Helen St Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	984	$1,500	$1.52	24d	1	0.36mi
6365 Helen St Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	1195	$1,650	$1.38	10d	1	0.42mi
7048 Deering St Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	17d	1	0.84mi
6954 Inkster Rd Dearborn Heights, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	837	$1,339	$1.60	3d	9	0.92mi
7435 Lathers St Westland, MI	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	17d	1	0.94mi
7457 Harrison St Westland, MI	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	2d	1	0.94mi
7484 Affeldt St Westland, MI	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	24d	1	0.96mi
641 Gilman St Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,600	$2.00	17d	1	0.96mi
536 N Leona Ave Garden City, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,440	$1.44	13d	1	1.15mi
26620 Baldwin St Dearborn Heights, MI	3.0	1.5	1156	$1,800	$1.56	2d	1	1.24mi
6810 Rosemary St Dearborn Heights, MI	3.0	1.5	1700	$2,000	$1.18	2d	1	1.24mi
30500 Warren Rd Westland, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,128	$1.25	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statuslisting id $200,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 621-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $200,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,378 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,378 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,378
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,814
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $1,190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garden City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615540
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $52,165
• Composite: 25.53/100
• National rank: #7433
• State rank: #365 of 540 in MI

Livability — Garden City

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #1047

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden City, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 26,739
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 26,739
• Household income: $67,294
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Arabic 3% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -265.28%
• Current HPI: 212.5713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.65%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Coming Soon $200,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-03-15 Sold (MLS) $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2011-03-15 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-14 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2011-02-04 Listed $20,034 REALCOMP
• 2011-02-04 Listed $20,034 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $153,500 Public Records
• 2005-08-08 Sold (MLS) $153,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-08 Sold (MLS) $153,500 REALCOMP
• 2005-07-30 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-25 Listed $164,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-03-25 Listed $154,999 REALCOMP
• 2001-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $140,400 Public Records
• 2000-12-17 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2000-10-19 Sold (MLS) $140,400 REALCOMP
• 2000-09-06 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP
• 2000-07-19 Listed $139,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,378 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.