434 Long St · West Columbia, TX 77486

$130,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,034 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 96 Days on market

Built 1980 7,000 sqft lot $126/sqft · 13% below area Est $150k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Reduced! Beautifully updated, quaint & cozy home, spacious yard w/ mature fruit trees, quietly nestled in Pecan Park. Just walking distance from downtown West Columbia! Home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 1 car attached garage, contemporary tile, regal quartz like countertops, butcher block breakfast bar, open concept. Spacious, beautiful back yard w/ large oak, pomegranate & fig trees. Call for your appointment today!

Key facts

• Open concept
• Remodeled home
• 7,000 sq ft lot

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• WALKING DISTANCE DOWNTOWN
• NEW CONTEMPORARY TILE
• REGAL QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• BUTCHER BLOCK BREAKFAST BAR
• OPEN CONCEPT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $93 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.4% in West Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#375 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia-Brazoria ISD (town): math 35% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #513 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,300 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,852
• List price: $130,000
• Delta: -13.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
440 W Brazos Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,034 (0%)	2mo	$173,900	$168	69
135 Ellis Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,029 (-0%)	8mo	$192,000	$187	66
114 N 15th St	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,107 (+7%)	4mo	$60,000	$54	64
104 Prewitt Ln	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (+8%)	18mo	$72,000	$64	62
624 Houston St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,136 (+10%)	8mo	$155,000	$136	60
106 S Mattson St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	2mo	$187,000	$173	56
109 S Ringgold St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,043 (+1%)	16mo	$229,000	$220	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $56,482
• Equity at exit: $95,501

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.38×
• Total profit: $159,537
• Equity at exit: $186,539

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77486

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,329 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$221 /mo · $2,653/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$279
• Net cashflow: $93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,211

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Ellis Ln Unit C West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	11d	1	0.39mi
136 Ellis Ln Unit C West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	7d	1	0.39mi
1106 S Columbia Dr Apt B West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	44d	1	1.24mi
1106 S Columbia Dr West Columbia, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	1.24mi
1224 County Road 449 West Columbia, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $130,000 Pending 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $130,000 Pending 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $130,000 Pending 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $130,000 Pending 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $130,000 Pending 90 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $130,000 Pending 89 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   price $130,000 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Price Reduced! Beautifully updated, quaint & cozy home, spacious yard w/ mature fruit trees, quietly nestled in Pecan Park. Just walking distance from downtown West Columbia! Home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 1 car attached garage, contemporary tile, regal quartz like countertops, butcher block breakfast bar, open concept. Spacious, beautiful back yard w/ large oak, pomegranate & fig trees. Call for your appointment today!

8. 2026-03-03
   listed $140,000 Active 436-char remark

   Show marketing remark (436 chars)

   Price Reduced! Beautifully updated, quaint & cozy home, spacious yard w/ mature fruit trees, quietly nestled in Pecan Park. Just walking distance from downtown West Columbia! Home features 3 bedrooms, 1 bath, 1 car attached garage, contemporary tile, regal quartz like countertops, butcher block breakfast bar, open concept. Spacious, beautiful back yard w/ large oak, pomegranate & fig trees. Call for your appointment today!

9. 2025-08-22
   historical $1,050
10. 2025-08-01
    price $1,050
11. 2025-07-17
    price $1,100
12. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,200
13. 2025-06-30
    historical $1,200
14. 2025-06-18
    listed $1,200
15. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus
16. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,653 · $221/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,653 · $221/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,954
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$2,653
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,276
• − Management: −$1,276
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$232
• After-tax cash flow: $1,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia-Brazoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814670
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,256
• Composite: 30.23/100
• National rank: #6297
• State rank: #513 of 826 in TX

Livability — West Columbia

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #375
• US rank: #7954

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Columbia, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,330

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.63%
• Current HPI: 320.7967
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10733.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Rental Removed $1,050 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $1,050 HARMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $1,100 HARMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2025-06-30 Rental Removed $1,200 HARMLS
• 2025-06-18 Listed for Rent $1,200 HARMLS
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,653 · -10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.