403 Hickory Walk · Holly Springs, GA 30188

$425,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1987 0.62 ac lot $175/sqft · at area comps Est $563k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

Key facts

• Concrete siding
• Tile kitchen
• Front porch

Tags

• PRIVATE LEVEL WOODED LOT
• CONCRETE SIDING
• STONE ACCENTS
• FRONT PORCH
• TILE KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $292k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $292k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.7% in Holly Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#243 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cherokee County (suburban): math 46% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #17 of 174 in GA (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 614 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,665 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (852 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cherokee County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $341k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,968 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.77%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $563,133
• List price: $425,000
• Delta: -24.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1095 Ashlin Dr	0.21mi	5/2.0	2,451 (+1%)	4mo	$480,000	$196	82
410 Hickory Walk	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,364 (-3%)	24mo	$430,000	$182	62
449 Coolsprings Cv	0.39mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,668 (+10%)	2mo	$452,000	$169	59
805 Springharbor Ct	0.66mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,386 (-2%)	4mo	$367,000	$154	57
141 Highlands Dr	0.69mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,329 (-4%)	1mo	$536,000	$230	55
1007 Springharbor Walk	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,318 (-5%)	13mo	$485,000	$209	52
100 Woodview Ct	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,496 (+3%)	24mo	$555,000	$222	51
441 Coolsprings Cv	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,352 (-3%)	22mo	$395,000	$168	50
119 Springwater Trce	0.40mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,757 (+13%)	20mo	$385,000	$140	38
204 Holly Creek Way	0.73mi	5/3.0	2,770 (+14%)	11mo	$391,000	$141	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-96,175
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-110,809
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30188

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 614
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$373 /mo · $4,480/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$613
• Net cashflow: $-473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,518

Max offer price $341,512

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
146 E Ridge Way Woodstock, GA	4.0	2.5	2053	$2,769	$1.35	18d	1	0.97mi
507 Karen Ln Woodstock, GA	6.0	4.5	2744	$7,000	$2.55	43d	1	1.16mi
230 Margrave Dr Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2163	$2,599	$1.20	1d	1	1.19mi
210 Margrave Dr Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2228	$2,629	$1.18	5d	1	1.22mi
205 Margrave Dr Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2222	$2,499	$1.12	24d	1	1.26mi
431 Curlin Ct Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2222	$2,629	$1.18	2d	1	1.35mi
406 Curlin Ct Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2335	$2,669	$1.14	43d	1	1.35mi
401 Curlin Ct Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2335	$2,669	$1.14	12d	1	1.39mi
313 Knowles Pl Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2022	$2,509	$1.24	1d	1	1.44mi
196 Chapelcrest Ln Canton, GA	4.0	2.5	2184	$2,559	$1.17	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Under Contract 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

2. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

3. 2026-05-13
   price $425,000 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

4. 2026-05-13
   price $425,000 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

5. 2026-02-20
   listed $440,000 New 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

6. 2026-02-20
   listed $440,000 Active 1054-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1054 chars)

   Gorgeous, excellent, well-maintained home on private level wooded lot! This home has it all! Concrete siding with beautiful stone accents. Amazing front porch for relaxing. Tile kitchen & breakfast room. Dining room and Vaulted family room with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with his & her closets. Large master bathroom with double vanity, soaking tub & separate shower. 2 additional bedrooms on main & full bath with tiled floor. Finished Basement includes 2 bedrooms, great for office, playroom or exercise room & full bath with tiled floor. Basement also has additional closets for storage, utility room with workspace & utility sink. Huge 2 car garage. Plenty of room for additional storage or boat and has extra area for workshop. Long level driveway with plenty of parking. Amazing fenced backyard big enough to put in a pool, enjoy outdoor entertaining, great yard for kids to play & dogs to run. Award winning schools and close to shopping, restaurants and downtown Woodstock! NO HOA! This house will not last long!

7. 2025-10-01
   historical
8. 2025-10-01
   historical
9. 2025-06-03
   listed $440,000 New
10. 2025-06-03
    listed $440,000 Active
11. 2021-09-22
    soldstatus $340,550
12. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $340,550 Closed
13. 2021-09-17
    soldstatus $340,500 Sold
14. 2021-08-19
    status Pending
15. 2021-08-16
    status Under Contract
16. 2021-08-16
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2021-08-10
    listed $315,000 Active
18. 2021-08-10
    listed $315,000 New
19. 1987-07-15
    soldstatus $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,480 · $373/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,480 · $373/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$4,480
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,803
• − Management: −$2,803
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$13,345
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,203
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cherokee County
• NCES district ID: 1301110
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,295
• Composite: 42.14/100
• National rank: #3304
• State rank: #17 of 174 in GA

Livability — Holly Springs

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #13838

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cherokee County · 289,977 people
• City population: 109,446
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 69,518
• Household income: $106,844
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1591.0

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,923 people
• By 2030: 303,845 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 344,738 · +22.3%
• By 2050: 379,010 · +34.4%
• By 2075: 449,617 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 484,103 · +71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.0) · D 30.1% · R 69.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.1pp toward D · 2008: -51.1pp · 2024: -39.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.0 2020: R+39.2 2016: R+50.0 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+51.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -291.54%
• Current HPI: 260.554
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.96%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+431.9% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — FMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $425,000 GAMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $425,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $440,000 FMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $440,000 GAMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $440,000 FMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listed $440,000 GAMLS
• 2021-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $340,550 Public Records
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $340,500 GAMLS
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $340,550 FMLS
• 2021-08-19 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-08-16 Contingent — FMLS
• 2021-08-10 Listed $315,000 GAMLS
• 2021-08-10 Listed $315,000 FMLS
• 1987-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $79,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,480 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.