Gossamer - TR Plan · Upper Milford, PA 18062

$474,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,144 sqft · MultiFamily · 129 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Only a limited number of Twin Villa lots remain, making now the ideal time to act. Don't miss your chance to live in this exceptional community! Kay Builders, established in 1961, proudly introduces The Fields at Twin Run, their 46th new home community in the Lehigh Valley. This thoughtfully selected location was chosen to meet the needs of today's homebuyers, offering comfort, convenience, and lasting value. Located in Upper Milford Township and the East Penn School District, this community is within a few miles of all major conveniences. Community Highlights: 78 Twin Villas - 8 floor plans with your choice of Owners Suite on the second floor, Owners Suite on the Main Floor, or a ranch style. 2-story villas feature 3 bedrooms, 2 ½ baths (for ranch styles, see plan). All villas include a 2-car garage and full basement. The Design - While others build mirror-image twin homes with a repetitive cookie-cutter look, Kay Builders creatively pairs all floor plans, giving each pair a distinctive, unique appearance. Exterior Features - Choice of Craftsman or Modern Farmhouse facade. Features substantial masonry, varied roof lines & offsets, upscale garage doors, professionally coordinated colors, and accent siding. Designs blend perfectly with the environment. Interior Features - Spacious and private - Sizes range from 1,567 to 2,469 sq. ft. of living space with volume ceilings included in several plans. Gathering spaces and private places loaded with modern charm. Location - Minutes from 3 major Shopping/Dining hubs: downtown Emmaus, Hamilton Crossings on Route 222, and Macungie (Route 100 south). Quick access to Interstate 78. 2 major medical facilities nearby. Discover Your Dream Home at The Fields at Twin Run by Kay Builders

Key facts

• 2 story villas
• Substantial masonry
• Craftsman facade

Tags

• OWNERS SUITE ON THE MAIN FLOOR
• RANCH STYLE
• 2 STORY VILLAS
• CRAFTSMAN FACADE
• MODERN FARMHOUSE FACADE
• SUBSTANTIAL MASONRY

🏗️ New construction. The $474,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $429,199.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $475k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $434k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $418k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• East Penn SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #103 of 539 in PA (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 157 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,339/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($111k/yr) (locally 537% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($418k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $417,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.61%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,199
• List price: $474,900
• Delta: 10.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-52,257
• Equity at exit: $63,995

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-54,566
• Equity at exit: $37,109

Cash invested: $120,176 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18062

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 18.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,339 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,251
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$536 /mo · $6,438/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$911
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,755

Max offer price $429,199

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $758	-5% $610	+0% $462	+5% $313	+10% $165
Rent	-10% $119	-5% $290	+0% $462	+5% $633	+10% $804
Rate	-1.0pp $678	-0.5pp $571	base $462	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $237

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,340
Total (2 units)			$4,339

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,300
• Closing costs: $12,876
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3740 Samantha Ln Upper Milford Township, PA	3.0	3.5	2030	$2,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.04mi
4939 Indian Creek Rd Macungie, PA	3.0	1.0	1664	$2,500	$1.50	44d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $474,900 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $474,900 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $474,900 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $474,900 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $474,900 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $474,900 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $474,900 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $474,900 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $474,900 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $474,900 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $474,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $474,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $474,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $474,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $474,900 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $474,900 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-02-09
    listed $474,900 Active 1765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1765 chars)

    Only a limited number of Twin Villa lots remain, making now the ideal time to act. Don't miss your chance to live in this exceptional community! Kay Builders, established in 1961, proudly introduces The Fields at Twin Run, their 46th new home community in the Lehigh Valley. This thoughtfully selected location was chosen to meet the needs of today's homebuyers, offering comfort, convenience, and lasting value. Located in Upper Milford Township and the East Penn School District, this community is within a few miles of all major conveniences. Community Highlights: 78 Twin Villas - 8 floor plans with your choice of Owners Suite on the second floor, Owners Suite on the Main Floor, or a ranch style. 2-story villas feature 3 bedrooms, 2 ½ baths (for ranch styles, see plan). All villas include a 2-car garage and full basement. The Design - While others build mirror-image twin homes with a repetitive cookie-cutter look, Kay Builders creatively pairs all floor plans, giving each pair a distinctive, unique appearance. Exterior Features - Choice of Craftsman or Modern Farmhouse facade. Features substantial masonry, varied roof lines & offsets, upscale garage doors, professionally coordinated colors, and accent siding. Designs blend perfectly with the environment. Interior Features - Spacious and private - Sizes range from 1,567 to 2,469 sq. ft. of living space with volume ceilings included in several plans. Gathering spaces and private places loaded with modern charm. Location - Minutes from 3 major Shopping/Dining hubs: downtown Emmaus, Hamilton Crossings on Route 222, and Macungie (Route 100 south). Quick access to Interstate 78. 2 major medical facilities nearby. Discover Your Dream Home at The Fields at Twin Run by Kay Builders

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,042
• − Property taxes: −$6,438
• − Insurance: −$2,146
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,165
• − Management: −$4,165
• − Depreciation: −$12,486
• Taxable loss: −$1,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$330
• After-tax cash flow: $5,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Craftsman-style home in Upper Milford PA is in excellent condition with modern Farmhouse interior and exterior features. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to both buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers and renters.
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and appeal to renters looking for energy-efficient homes.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to both buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and appeal to renters looking for energy-efficient homes. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Penn SD
• NCES district ID: 4208550
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $70,679
• Composite: 47.99/100
• National rank: #2200
• State rank: #103 of 539 in PA

Livability — Upper Milford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Lehigh County · 333,019 people
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• Population (ZIP): 27,110
• Household income: $110,675
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 537.0

Population outlook (Lehigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,957 people
• By 2030: 408,319 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 440,007 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 475,940 · +21.1%
• By 2075: 590,448 · +50.3%
• By 2100: 690,314 · +75.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lehigh

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.9pp toward R · 2008: 15.6pp · 2024: 2.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.7 2020: D+7.6 2016: D+4.4 2012: D+7.5 2008: D+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.04%
• Current HPI: 253.5939
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Metro: Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-09 Listed $474,900 Zillow