10159 Miller Dr · Shreveport, LA 71047

$135,000

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 2,295 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 148 Days on market

Built 1994 1.24 ac lot $59/sqft · 50% below area Est $263k · 49% under ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

Key facts

• 1.24 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1994

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $310 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 5.6% in Shreveport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#270 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Caddo Parish (urban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #53 of 98 in LA (top 54%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 221 units permitted in Caddo Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caddo County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.85%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,579
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -48.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10248 Cardiff Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,270 (-1%)	8mo	$300,000	$132	60
6090 Dorchester Cir	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,635 (+15%)	11mo	$350,000	$133	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,034
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $24,014
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71047

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,182/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $387	-5% $348	+0% $310	+5% $272	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $176	-5% $243	+0% $310	+5% $377	+10% $444
Rate	-1.0pp $378	-0.5pp $345	base $310	+0.5pp $275	+1.0pp $240

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-13
   price $135,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $145,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

3. 2026-04-17
   price $155,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

4. 2026-04-09
   status Active 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

5. 2026-03-23
   status Pending 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

6. 2026-03-16
   price $165,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

7. 2026-02-13
   price $175,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

8. 2026-01-14
   price $185,000 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

9. 2025-12-12
   listed $195,000 Active 380-char remark

   Show marketing remark (380 chars)

   Large house with a great floorplan in Keithville located on over an acre! Vaulted ceilings in living room, with a cozy fireplace. Good sized bedrooms. House has very nice professional grade workshop with its own power meter. Some built ins in dining room. Lots of room to roam. Will need a new roof. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee). See agent remarks.

10. 2018-03-02
    soldstatus $217,000
11. 1992-06-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,182 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,182 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$3,182
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $1,746
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$419
• After-tax cash flow: $3,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -30.00%
• Median HH income: $39,227
• Composite: 22.23/100
• National rank: #8148
• State rank: #53 of 98 in LA

Livability — Shreveport

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #19730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 164,123
• Population (ZIP): 10,874

Population outlook (Caddo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 243,190 people
• By 2030: 237,231 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 222,502 · -8.5%
• By 2050: 206,516 · -15.1%
• By 2075: 165,706 · -31.9%
• By 2100: 122,262 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 17% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caddo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.6% · R 47.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: 4.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.6 2020: D+6.8 2016: D+4.2 2012: D+4.9 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.82%
• Current HPI: 158.0139
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-37.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $135,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $145,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $185,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $195,000 NTREIS
• 2018-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $217,000 Public Records
• 1992-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,182 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.