441 Mockingbird Cir · Flowood, MS 39047

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1999 6,534 sqft lot Est $287k · 27% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super clean, move in ready home located on the water! New roof, and newer a/c inside and out. Entire house is LED, with wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout. Large walk-in shower with seat added in master bedroom. Refrigerator and microwave stay. Nice covered back porch overlooking the water!

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Water views
• Tall ceilings

Tags

• LAKEFRONT
• WATER VIEWS
• TALL CEILINGS
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• DURABLE CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community features include a lake

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; 2-space carport; Direct access; Concrete surface
• Security: Smoke detectors; Deadbolt locks
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Fiber to the house
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick and wood siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by owner (year built source: owner)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rain gutters; Fenced yard with wrought iron in back; Landscaped, level lot with views; Lake access/near a lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Free-standing electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Laminate counters; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Additional bedroom
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric) and fireplace heat; Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; High-speed internet; Laminate counters; Pantry; Storage; Walk-in closets; Blinds and vinyl windows; Deadbolt locks; Wood-burning fireplace in the great room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $9 ($108/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Flowood Elementary School (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #65 of 375 statewide, top 20%, 489 students, 99% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,786 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.18%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $287,212
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
739 Whippoorwill Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,114 (-3%)	2mo	$214,900	$193	79
205 Meadow Lark Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,087 (-6%)	5mo	$201,000	$185	76
414 Pelican Way	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,125 (-2%)	5mo	$209,000	$186	74
407 Pelican Way	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,103 (-4%)	2mo	$205,000	$186	73
321 Swan Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,166 (+1%)	4mo	$215,000	$184	72
115 Eagle Dr	0.39mi	2/1.0	1,100 (-4%)	6mo	$195,000	$177	70
218 Falcon Cv	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,127 (-2%)	4mo	$190,000	$169	69
408 Pelican Way	0.32mi	2/1.5	1,065 (-7%)	3mo	$207,500	$195	68
309 Audubon Cir	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,077 (-6%)	6mo	$187,000	$174	67
349 Audubon Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,252 (+9%)	4mo	$229,900	$184	61
214 Falcon Cv	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,087 (-6%)	6mo	$204,900	$189	61
2030 Stockton Pl	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,305 (+14%)	5mo	$214,500	$164	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-33,696
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-29,653
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,598 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $781/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $9

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,586

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $128	-5% $68	+0% $9	+5% $-50	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-54	+0% $9	+5% $72	+10% $135
Rate	-1.0pp $115	-0.5pp $62	base $9	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
508 Stockton Cv Flowood, MS	3.0	2.0	1271	$1,806	$1.42	45d	1	0.56mi
1703 Old Fannin Rd Flowood, MS	2.0	2.0	950	$1,166	$1.23	45d	1	0.98mi
1703 Old Fannin Rd Flowood, MS	2.0	2.0	950	$1,174	$1.24	25d	1	0.98mi
1703 Old Fannin Rd Flowood, MS	2.0	2.0	950	$1,207	$1.27	15d	1	0.98mi
1204 Barnett Bend Cir Brandon, MS	2.0	2.0	1127	$1,625	$1.44	23d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-08
   listed $209,900 Active
3. 2023-07-03
   soldstatus
4. 2023-06-30
   soldstatus Closed 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Super clean, move in ready home located on the water! New roof, and newer a/c inside and out. Entire house is LED, with wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout. Large walk-in shower with seat added in master bedroom. Refrigerator and microwave stay. Nice covered back porch overlooking the water!

5. 2023-05-17
   status Pending 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Super clean, move in ready home located on the water! New roof, and newer a/c inside and out. Entire house is LED, with wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout. Large walk-in shower with seat added in master bedroom. Refrigerator and microwave stay. Nice covered back porch overlooking the water!

6. 2023-05-12
   listed $192,900 Active 302-char remark

   Show marketing remark (302 chars)

   Super clean, move in ready home located on the water! New roof, and newer a/c inside and out. Entire house is LED, with wood and ceramic tile flooring throughout. Large walk-in shower with seat added in master bedroom. Refrigerator and microwave stay. Nice covered back porch overlooking the water!

7. 2005-09-15
   soldstatus
8. 2005-09-09
   soldstatus 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   super 2/2 brick home on fishing lake!well-maintained;pride of ownership reflected!double carport,covered patio.call for your private showing!6019398511.

9. 2005-08-26
   listed $117,900 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   super 2/2 brick home on fishing lake!well-maintained;pride of ownership reflected!double carport,covered patio.call for your private showing!6019398511.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $781 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,658 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$877/yr (+$73/mo · 112.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,174
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$781
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,534
• − Management: −$1,534
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$3,588
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$861
• After-tax cash flow: $969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+78.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-08 Listed $209,900 MLSU
• 2023-07-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2023-05-17 Pending — MLSU
• 2023-05-12 Listed $192,900 MLSU
• 2005-09-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-09-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-08-26 Listed $117,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $781 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.