1103 Germania St · Bay City, MI 48706

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1910 7,405 sqft lot $36/sqft · 55% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into a piece of history — a gracious older home overflowing with original natural woodwork, beautiful wide wood trim and doors, wood plank flooring, timeless pocket doors and built-ins. The craftsmanship remains throughout: expansive room proportions, original stair details, butler's pantry, etc. present an exceptional restoration canvas. The property sits on a generous city lot with abundant outdoor space and includes a full basement offering storage and potential workspace. The property is being sold AS-IS and requires thoughtful repair and renovation. Perfect for buyers, preservationists or contractors eager to revive an elegant period residence while preserving its authentic

Key facts

• Wide wood trim
• Wood plank flooring
• Full basement

Tags

• ORIGINAL NATURAL WOODWORK
• WIDE WOOD TRIM
• WOOD PLANK FLOORING
• BUTLER'S PANTRY
• FULL BASEMENT
• GENEROUS CITY LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade area present (unfinished; approx. 1200 below-grade sq. ft.); Lot acreage approx. 0.17 acres
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security details provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas; Gas water heater
• Home design: Residential fixer-upper; Two-story structure; Built in 1910; Corner lot (corner of Wenona and Germania); property faces east
• Construction: Cinder block and shingle siding exterior; Basement foundation (unfinished block basement)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Sidewalks; Property located within city limits; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen (approx. 11 x 13); Linoleum flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the second floor (approx. dimensions: 15 x 18; 13 x 13; 21 wide; 11 x 13); Wood flooring in bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring in living, dining, sitting room and bedrooms; Linoleum in kitchen; Vinyl in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (vinyl floor; located on the first floor; approx. 7 x 8)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Hardwood floors throughout main living areas; Den / study / library; Formal dining room; Entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $569 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $75k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $72,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.51%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,866
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: -54.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1704 S Warner St	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,962 (-7%)	5mo	$183,000	$93	73
1801 S Warner St	0.18mi	3/2.5	2,300 (+10%)	8mo	$208,000	$90	67
1203 S WARNER RD St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,038 (-3%)	15mo	$126,900	$62	55
1811 S Chilson St	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,894 (-10%)	23mo	$136,000	$72	54
409 McCormick St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,032 (-3%)	10mo	$92,962	$46	51
1012 S Wenona Ave	0.56mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,320 (+10%)	12mo	$220,000	$95	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $24,111
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.23×
• Total profit: $67,778
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,397 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,326/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $569

Break-even live

Break-even rent $677

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $590	+0% $569	+5% $548	+10% $526
Rent	-10% $458	-5% $514	+0% $569	+5% $624	+10% $679
Rate	-1.0pp $607	-0.5pp $588	base $569	+0.5pp $549	+1.0pp $530

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $75,000 Active 798-char remark
18. 2005-10-31
    soldstatus $45,000
19. 2005-08-23
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,326 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,326 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,326
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $6,002
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,440
• After-tax cash flow: $5,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+50.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-10-31 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2005-08-23 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,326 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.