411 Citrus Cir #60 · San Juan, TX 78589

$79,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Built 1989 Fair condition 4,847 sqft lot $57/sqft · 25% below area Est $105k · 25% under $11/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering exceptional flexibility and space. In addition to the main living areas, this home features a large bonus room measuring approximately 27 x 14, perfect for a second living area, game room, home office, or potential additional sleeping space.The bonus room also includes a built-in storage room measuring approximately 27 x 6, providing ample room for organization, tools, seasonal items, or hobby equipment—an uncommon and highly functional feature.With a versatile layout and added square footage not typically found in similar homes, this property offers endless possibilities for customization and use. Ideal for homeowners looking for extra space, multi-purpose rooms, or added storage without sacrificing comfort.This property is in a 55 plus community for extra ideal privacy.

Key facts

• Versatile layout
• Large bonus room
• 4,847 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE BONUS ROOM
• BUILT-IN STORAGE ROOM
• VERSATILE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.65%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,900
• List price: $79,000
• Delta: -24.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $13,821
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $46,386
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,234 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$11
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	0.31mi
1410 State Ave San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	43d	1	0.34mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	43d	1	0.58mi
913 E 13th St #1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,050	$1.04	43d	1	0.70mi
1702 Angelina Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1037	$1,300	$1.25	18d	1	0.76mi
1806 Angelina Dr Unit 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1142	$1,250	$1.09	23d	1	0.78mi
311 W 8th St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1839	$1,390	$0.76	43d	1	0.95mi
1106 Cooper Ln Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	43d	1	1.15mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,270	$1.22	23d	1	1.19mi
404 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,080	$1.03	43d	1	1.19mi
400 Rafael Dr Unit 3 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	969	$1,100	$1.14	21d	1	1.20mi
405 Rafael Dr Apt 2 San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	1.21mi
221 Rafael Dr Unit 1 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,150	$0.96	43d	1	1.28mi
1807 S Linden St Unit A Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$900	$0.94	43d	1	1.28mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	43d	1	1.30mi
217 Rafael Dr Unit 4 San Juan, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,100	$1.02	43d	1	1.31mi
1604 E Quail St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$850	$0.89	43d	1	1.31mi
1806 S Linden St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	43d	1	1.31mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	1.35mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	43d	1	1.35mi
1802 S Kumquat St Unit B Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	21d	1	1.35mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	23d	1	1.36mi
1504 E Quail St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$995	$0.90	43d	1	1.37mi
1803 S Ironwood St Unit 4 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	925	$899	$0.97	43d	1	1.43mi
837 S 13th St Alamo, TX	2.0	1.5	1104	$1,095	$0.99	14d	1	1.45mi
1806 S Ironwood St Apt D Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$850	$0.93	43d	1	1.47mi
1806 S Ironwood St Pharr, TX	2.0	2.5	910	$850	$0.93	43d	1	1.47mi
1803 S Horse St Unit 2 Pharr, TX	2.0	2.0	972	$825	$0.85	23d	1	1.48mi
1304 E Quail St Unit D Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$825	$0.77	18d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $11 · $132/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $79,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 124 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $79,000 Active 122 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $79,000 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering exceptional flexibility and space. In addition to the main living areas, this home features a large bonus room measuring approximately 27 x 14, perfect for a second living area, game room, home office, or potential additional sleeping space.The bonus room also includes a built-in storage room measuring approximately 27 x 6, providing ample room for organization, tools, seasonal items, or hobby equipment—an uncommon and highly functional feature.With a versatile layout and added square footage not typically found in similar homes, this property offers endless possibilities for customization and use. Ideal for homeowners looking for extra space, multi-purpose rooms, or added storage without sacrificing comfort.This property is in a 55 plus community for extra ideal privacy.

17. 2026-02-05
    listed $80,000 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    Welcome to this well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home offering exceptional flexibility and space. In addition to the main living areas, this home features a large bonus room measuring approximately 27 x 14, perfect for a second living area, game room, home office, or potential additional sleeping space.The bonus room also includes a built-in storage room measuring approximately 27 x 6, providing ample room for organization, tools, seasonal items, or hobby equipment—an uncommon and highly functional feature.With a versatile layout and added square footage not typically found in similar homes, this property offers endless possibilities for customization and use. Ideal for homeowners looking for extra space, multi-purpose rooms, or added storage without sacrificing comfort.This property is in a 55 plus community for extra ideal privacy.

18. 2025-02-23
    listed $84,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,184
• − Management: −$1,184
• − HOA: −$132
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $3,999
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$960
• After-tax cash flow: $4,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This mobile home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with a focus on the roof and exterior. Simple updates like painting and flooring replacement can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate roof — visible wear
• Moderate exterior siding — some discoloration
• Minor kitchen cabinets — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal
• Resale replace linoleum kitchen flooring — modernizes space
• Both repair roof — improves home's condition and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · visible wear	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · some discoloration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
kitchen cabinets · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale paint interior walls — enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale replace linoleum kitchen flooring — modernizes space ↑
• Both repair roof — improves home's condition and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $79,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $80,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-23 Listed $84,500 MCALLENMLS