5637 Mesa Loop · Canyon Creek, TX 76048

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,389 sqft · Land · 132 Days on market

Built 2025 1,307 sqft lot $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the gated Canyon Creek community near Lake Granbury, this beautifully designed new construction single-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a spacious open-concept layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen flows seamlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a bright, welcoming space filled with natural light. The private primary suite features an en-suite bath and generous closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Enjoy the ease of single-level living along with access to Canyon Creek amenities, including gated security, community pool, clubhouse, park, and boat ramp to Lake Granb

Key facts

• New construction
• En-suite bath
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• GATED CANYON CREEK COMMUNITY
• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATH
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($939/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (6.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Canyon Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,102 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mambrino School (math 53% / reading 48%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 886 students, 53% FRL); Granbury Middle (math 35% / reading 40%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 846 students, 68% FRL); Granbury H S (math 38% / reading 51%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,202 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 930 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.49%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,371
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-39,757
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 930
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,001

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $234	-5% $156	+0% $78	+5% $0	+10% $-77
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-5	+0% $78	+5% $161	+10% $244
Rate	-1.0pp $192	-0.5pp $135	base $78	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-39

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5619 Cold Water Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.5	1801	$2,090	$1.16	45d	1	0.21mi
5105 Waterbury Ct Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,300	$1.33	26d	1	0.29mi
5522 Firewood Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1437	$2,400	$1.67	45d	1	0.33mi
2500 Houston Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1770	$2,400	$1.36	6d	1	0.35mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	4d	1	0.36mi
2524 Creek Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,150	$1.33	0d	1	0.36mi
5621 San Jacinto Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1477	$2,100	$1.42	9d	1	0.52mi
5718 Barkridge Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1445	$2,070	$1.43	0d	1	0.54mi
2213 Beverly Dr Granbury, TX	4.0	2.5	1850	$2,300	$1.24	26d	1	0.71mi
2414 Forest Hill Ln Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1493	$2,150	$1.44	5d	1	0.85mi
2700 Steepleridge Cir Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,895	$1.32	9d	1	0.86mi
4710 Llano St Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,775	$1.22	45d	1	0.90mi
3705 Mandy Dr #2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,400	$1.21	26d	1	1.22mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 1 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1112	$1,300	$1.17	20d	1	1.24mi
3712 Mandy Dr Unit 2 Granbury, TX	3.0	1.0	1158	$1,300	$1.12	24d	1	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $225,000
3. 2026-04-07
   price $230,000
4. 2026-02-18
   price $235,000
5. 2025-12-17
   listed $240,000 Active
6. 2025-07-08
   historical
7. 2025-05-28
   listed $20,000 Active
8. 2003-08-25
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$670
• After-tax cash flow: $1,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Creek

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1102
• US rank: #19485

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Creek, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1025.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-17 Listed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-07-08 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Listed $20,000 NTREIS
• 2003-08-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $237 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.