Is 173 Rising Cedar Dr in Hockley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.8% cap rate and $-706/mo modeled cash flow at a $262,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 173 Rising Cedar Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 3.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,118/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 26.7

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +5.6/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.7/10.0
Livability +2.5/5.0
Rent growth +2.1/5.0
1% rule +1.3/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$262,990

173 Rising Cedar Dr · Hockley, TX 77447

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Garage $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting single-story home spans 1,539 square feet and presents an efficient floor plan designed for both comfort and functionality. Featuring three bedrooms, including a primary suite, this floor plan caters to families or individuals seeking versatile living spaces. The two strategically placed bathrooms enhance convenience and privacy, while the two-car garage provides secure parking and additional storage. This thoughtfully designed one-story home strikes a perfect balance between practicality and cozy living.

Key facts

Spacious island
Generous pantry
Large walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $263k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-706 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (10.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (19.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $212k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Fields Store El (math 47% / reading 43%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 663 students, 63% FRL); Schultz J H (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 1,120 students, 65% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 2097 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,817 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.63% ✗
Cap rate: 3.78%
Cash-on-cash: -8.98%
DSCR: 0.60
GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $337,119
List price: $262,990
Delta: -21.99%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
256 Elm Spring Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,539 (0%)	1mo	$252,990	$164	94
237 Elm Spring Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,539 (0%)	4mo	$257,990	$168	91
544 Wax Myrtle Way	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+2%)	0mo	$290,990	$185	90
101 Rising Cedar Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,489 (-3%)	3mo	$249,990	$168	87
24930 Joseph Rd	1.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-4%)	10mo	$425,000	$287	46
24280 Fox Hollow Dr	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+9%)	10mo	$439,000	$261	41
25808 Robin Hood Ln	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+16%)	11mo	$375,000	$209	39
24301 Country Ln	0.90mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+16%)	23mo	$285,000	$159	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -35.7%
Equity multiple: -0.12×
Total profit: $-105,763
Equity at exit: $50,266

10-year hold

IRR: -71.8%
Equity multiple: -0.84×
Total profit: $-173,765
Equity at exit: $29,148

Cash invested: $94,393 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 25 active · 6 under contract
Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $270,900 ($170/sqft)
Median days on market: 183 d
This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +28.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77447

Home prices YoY: -31.1%
Rents YoY: -1.6%
Active inventory: 2097
Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,118 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,768
Tax est. 1.5%: −$421 /mo · $5,057/yr
Insurance: −$140
HOA: −$50
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
Net cashflow: $-706

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,012

Max offer price $234,903

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-473	-5% $-590	+0% $-706	+5% $-823	+10% $-939
Rent	-10% $-874	-5% $-790	+0% $-706	+5% $-623	+10% $-539
Rate	-1.0pp $-537	-0.5pp $-621	base $-706	+0.5pp $-794	+1.0pp $-883

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $84,280
Closing costs: $10,114
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Association: Goodwin & CompanyAnnual association fee of $600

Exterior

Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
Security: Prewired for securitySmoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)South-facing
Construction: Built in 2026Brick, cement siding and stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt by D.R. Horton
Exterior features: Covered patioPorchDeckPatioPrivate yardFence (back yard)Sprinkler/irrigation

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveKitchen islandQuartz countertopsPantryBreakfast bar
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 13x12Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15x12Bedroom (First floor) — 13x12
Flooring: CarpetPlank flooringVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsDouble vanity
Heating & cooling: Central heating (Gas)Central electric air conditioningProgrammable thermostat
Interior features: Breakfast barDouble vanityKitchen islandKitchen and family room comboPantryQuartz countertopsKitchen and dining comboLiving and dining roomProgrammable thermostatLow emissivity windows
Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookupTankless water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $262,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $262,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $262,990 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $262,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $262,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $262,990 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $262,990 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $262,990 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $262,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $262,990 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $262,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $262,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $262,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $262,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $262,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $262,990 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $262,990 Active 29 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $262,990 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $262,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $262,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $262,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $262,990 Active 24 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $262,990 Active 23 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $262,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $262,990 Active 20 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $262,990 Active 19 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $262,990 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $262,990 Active 17 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $262,990 Active 16 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $262,990 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $262,990 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $262,990 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $262,990 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $262,990 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $262,990 Active 10 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $262,990 Active 9 DOM
2026-06-24

remarks 687-char remark
2026-06-24

days on marketlisting id $262,990 Active 7 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $262,990 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $262,990 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $262,990 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $262,990 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $262,990 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $262,990 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $262,990 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $262,990 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $262,990 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $262,990 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $262,990 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $262,990 Active 20 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,418
− Mortgage interest: −$18,884
− Property taxes: −$5,057
− Insurance: −$1,686
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,033
− Management: −$2,033
− HOA: −$600
− Depreciation: −$9,807
Taxable loss: −$14,682

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,524
After-tax cash flow: $-4,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, well-maintained exterior, and a clean interior. It has the potential to be enhanced with some interior updates and smart home technology to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the interior walls and adding some decorative elements to the kitchen and bathrooms. — Fresh paint and decor can enhance the home's appeal and make it more inviting. ↑
Both Adding a smart home system for convenience and energy efficiency. — A smart home system can improve the home's value by making it more energy-efficient and easier to control from a distance. ↑
Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms to a more durable material. — Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms can improve the home's resale value by making it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
Rental Adding a smart thermostat to the HVAC system. — A smart thermostat can help reduce energy costs and make the home more attractive to renters who are looking for energy-efficient properties. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Fields Store El D- TX #1,133/4,322 Nat'l #15,897/41,679 Middle Schultz J H F TX #892/1,662 Nat'l #7,813/14,009 High Waller H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Waller ISD
NCES district ID: 4844430
Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $58,911
Composite: 29.12/100
National rank: #6593
State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hockley

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County: Harris County · 60,772 people
City population: 25,231
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 25,231
Household income: $116,925
Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,772 people
By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
Current HPI: 249.6969
Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

2026-06-17 Listed $262,990 HARMLS
2026-05-13 Listed $262,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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