20111 Beechview Ln · Houston, TX 77449

$229,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,654 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1983 4,726 sqft lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $240k · at est. $52/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this well-maintained property in Westgreen! Ideal for a , this home offers versatile living spaces, a spacious kitchen, and updated bathrooms. Enjoy entertaining in the generous indoor and outdoor areas, with built-ins and plenty of storage throughout. Relax on the private deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening wine. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator included. This Single-Family home boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1654 sq ft, and was built in 1983. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make this house your home!

Key facts

• 4,726 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-255 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 744 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,865 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,416
• List price: $229,995
• Delta: -4.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20111 Beechview Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,654 (0%)	1mo	$229,995	$139	99
20066 Moonflower Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+3%)	2mo	$225,000	$132	86
20058 Little Big Horn Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,724 (+4%)	4mo	$279,900	$162	72
20055 Fort Stanton Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,567 (-5%)	4mo	$250,000	$160	71
1823 Strongs Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+1%)	0mo	$285,000	$171	70
20319 S Sabinal Dr	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,678 (+2%)	6mo	$260,000	$155	63
20426 Blue Juniper Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,762 (+6%)	4mo	$255,000	$145	58
19718 Mission Mill Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,769 (+7%)	1mo	$256,900	$145	56
2606 Sunbird Drive Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-8%)	1mo	$235,000	$154	55
20115 Golden Mesa Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-10%)	2mo	$225,000	$151	51
20503 Blue Beech Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-11%)	1mo	$249,900	$170	49
20119 Golden Mesa Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,834 (+11%)	6mo	$261,500	$143	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.27% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,861
• Equity at exit: $52,543

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-62,650
• Equity at exit: $52,677

Cash invested: $64,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77449

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 744
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,981/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,239

Max offer price $184,865

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,499
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2203 Wheathall Camp Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,745	$1.25	43d	1	0.26mi
20000 Saums Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,839	$2.19	1d	22	0.29mi
2000 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,857	$1.81	2d	16	0.44mi
20070 N Navaho Trl Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,695	$1.24	21d	1	0.47mi
2603 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,213	$2.32	1d	39	0.57mi
2014 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1129	$1,265	$1.12	43d	1	0.66mi
2919 Amber Cliff Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,900	$1.25	43d	1	0.68mi
20104 Park Row Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,309	$1.06	43d	1	0.69mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW5 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	2d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2112 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,376	$1.28	2d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit DW4 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1235	$1,639	$1.33	5d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1583 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,974	$1.18	43d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,963	$1.18	10d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1607 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,409	$1.31	43d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,931	$1.16	2d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,384	$1.28	5d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 1587 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,408	$1.31	10d	1	0.78mi
1550 Westborough Dr Unit 2047 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,419	$1.32	10d	1	0.78mi
2503 Silver Trumpet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,791	$1.29	11d	1	0.78mi
20102 Twilight Canyon Rd Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	1633	$3,395	$2.08	2d	1	0.79mi
1562 N Westgreen Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	0.81mi
19638 Southaven Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,769	$1.05	16d	1	0.82mi
1550 Westborough Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,850	$1.11	43d	1	0.85mi
2622 Broomsedge Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1746	$1,050	$0.60	5d	1	0.99mi
1501 Foxlake Dr Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1181	$1,653	$1.40	24d	1	1.04mi
2607 Cypressvine Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$2,000	$1.31	19d	1	1.12mi
3130 Birchleaf Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,840	$1.08	43d	1	1.13mi
2606 Olster Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1527	$1,571	$1.03	5d	1	1.19mi
2411 Shady Brook Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$1,916	$1.12	5d	1	1.19mi
333 Dominion Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$1,969	$1.89	43d	1	1.22mi
1550 Foxlake Dr Unit 424 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,806	$1.61	5d	1	1.24mi
1550 Foxlake Dr Unit 1587 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,798	$1.60	2d	1	1.24mi
1550 Foxlake Dr Unit 1583 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,428	$1.70	2d	1	1.24mi
21402 Doral Rose Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1864	$1,950	$1.05	24d	1	1.25mi
1710 Blindlake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	1.28mi
21455 Merchants Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,137	$1.52	43d	1	1.35mi
21622 Stonecross Terrace Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1778	$2,050	$1.15	24d	1	1.36mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 547 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,753	$1.40	43d	1	1.37mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 424 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1108	$1,575	$1.42	5d	1	1.37mi
510 Westgreen Blvd Unit 533 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,753	$1.40	12d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   listed $229,995 Active 537-char remark

   Show marketing remark (537 chars)

   Welcome home to this well-maintained property in Westgreen! Ideal for a , this home offers versatile living spaces, a spacious kitchen, and updated bathrooms. Enjoy entertaining in the generous indoor and outdoor areas, with built-ins and plenty of storage throughout. Relax on the private deck, perfect for morning coffee or evening wine. Washer, dryer, and refrigerator included. This Single-Family home boasts 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1654 sq ft, and was built in 1983. Don't miss out on this opportunity to make this house your home!

2. 2007-05-18
   soldstatus
3. 1988-08-04
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,981 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,981 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 95% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,991
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$4,981
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$7,017
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,684
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,382/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 130,028
• Household income: $87,808
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 3088.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 22% Black 20% White 19% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Current HPI: 254.6622
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $229,995 HARMLS
• 2007-05-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,981 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.