105 Pineview Ln · Carlisle, KY 40311

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1990 8,995 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this budget friendly double wide that is looking for its new owner! Multiple recent upgrades and repairs. This house offers 3 beds and 2 baths and a decent sized city lot. This would be a great starter home or an investment property.

Key facts

• 8,995 sq ft lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area approximately 1,080
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Cooktop; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (see Rooms); primary bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Main level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $74 ($885/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.7% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Nicholas County Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 664 students, 71% FRL); Nicholas County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 455 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $120k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,302 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.01%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.08×
• Total profit: $70,037
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $202,515
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $338/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$225
• Net cashflow: $74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $142	-5% $108	+0% $74	+5% $40	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $31	+0% $74	+5% $116	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $104	base $74	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 244-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $338 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,032 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$694/yr (+$58/mo · 205.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$338
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,030
• − Management: −$1,030
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,132
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$272
• After-tax cash flow: $1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlisle, KY
• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+566.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $120,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-01-03 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $338 · +56.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.