207 Spence Ln · Franklin, KY 42134

$264,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 100 Days on market

Built 1978 0.39 ac lot $132/sqft · 18% below area Est $324k · 18% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 207 Spence Lane in Franklin, Kentucky. This home features many inviting details, and with some TLC, it can truly shine. A living room and separate dining room offer space and flexibility in the floor plan. An eat-in kitchen plus three bedrooms and two full baths—one with a shower and one with a jetted tub—complete the living space. The living room features built-in bookshelves and a charming brick fireplace with gas logs, while the family room includes a freestanding fireplace with gas logs as well. A ramp leading to the covered front porch provides accessibility and ease of entry. Other outdoor features include a 2-car attached carport and a back deck, plus mature shade trees in the front and back yard. Located just north of downtown Franklin with convenient access to both Bowling Green and Nashville. Call today to schedule your private showing!

Key facts

• Brick fireplace
• Separate dining room
• Eat-in kitchen

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• BRICK FIREPLACE
• FREESTANDING FIREPLACE
• 2-CAR ATTACHED CARPORT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.9% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#266 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Simpson County (town): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #72 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 255 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 204 units permitted in Simpson County in 2024 (31 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Simpson County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,223 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.50%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,690
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -18.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Stephens Hill Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	2,022 (+1%)	4mo	$320,000	$158	80
130 Hunters Xing	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,000 (-0%)	0mo	$388,500	$194	80
429 Widener Cir	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,105 (+5%)	15mo	$389,900	$185	69
637 Patton Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,733 (-14%)	8mo	$136,000	$78	65
218 Cambridge Station Rd	0.19mi	3/2.0	2,129 (+6%)	23mo	$360,000	$169	61
336 Patton Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,260 (+13%)	12mo	$309,279	$137	59
117 Hunters Xing	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,926 (-4%)	21mo	$355,000	$184	58
513 Foxridge Way	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-12%)	7mo	$385,000	$219	53
405 Lynnwood Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,044 (+2%)	12mo	$294,900	$144	52
100 Widener Cir	0.49mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,068 (+3%)	22mo	$416,000	$201	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-52,875
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-59,153
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42134

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Active inventory: 255
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,038

Max offer price $237,603

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 N Fairway Rd Franklin, KY	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,875	$1.10	21d	1	1.05mi
619 Mayes Ln Franklin, KY	4.0	3.0	2200	$1,750	$0.80	44d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $264,900 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,900 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,900 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,900 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,900 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $264,900 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,900 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $264,900 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,900 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $264,900 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $264,900 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $269,900 Active 80 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $269,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Spence Lane in Franklin, Kentucky. This home features many inviting details, and with some TLC, it can truly shine. A living room and separate dining room offer space and flexibility in the floor plan. An eat-in kitchen plus three bedrooms and two full baths—one with a shower and one with a jetted tub—complete the living space. The living room features built-in bookshelves and a charming brick fireplace with gas logs, while the family room includes a freestanding fireplace with gas logs as well. A ramp leading to the covered front porch provides accessibility and ease of entry. Other outdoor features include a 2-car attached carport and a back deck, plus mature shade trees in the front and back yard. Located just north of downtown Franklin with convenient access to both Bowling Green and Nashville. Call today to schedule your private showing!

18. 2026-04-23
    price $269,900 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Spence Lane in Franklin, Kentucky. This home features many inviting details, and with some TLC, it can truly shine. A living room and separate dining room offer space and flexibility in the floor plan. An eat-in kitchen plus three bedrooms and two full baths—one with a shower and one with a jetted tub—complete the living space. The living room features built-in bookshelves and a charming brick fireplace with gas logs, while the family room includes a freestanding fireplace with gas logs as well. A ramp leading to the covered front porch provides accessibility and ease of entry. Other outdoor features include a 2-car attached carport and a back deck, plus mature shade trees in the front and back yard. Located just north of downtown Franklin with convenient access to both Bowling Green and Nashville. Call today to schedule your private showing!

19. 2026-03-11
    listed $274,900 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Spence Lane in Franklin, Kentucky. This home features many inviting details, and with some TLC, it can truly shine. A living room and separate dining room offer space and flexibility in the floor plan. An eat-in kitchen plus three bedrooms and two full baths—one with a shower and one with a jetted tub—complete the living space. The living room features built-in bookshelves and a charming brick fireplace with gas logs, while the family room includes a freestanding fireplace with gas logs as well. A ramp leading to the covered front porch provides accessibility and ease of entry. Other outdoor features include a 2-car attached carport and a back deck, plus mature shade trees in the front and back yard. Located just north of downtown Franklin with convenient access to both Bowling Green and Nashville. Call today to schedule your private showing!

20. 2026-03-11
    listed $274,900 Active 881-char remark

    Show marketing remark (881 chars)

    Welcome to 207 Spence Lane in Franklin, Kentucky. This home features many inviting details, and with some TLC, it can truly shine. A living room and separate dining room offer space and flexibility in the floor plan. An eat-in kitchen plus three bedrooms and two full baths—one with a shower and one with a jetted tub—complete the living space. The living room features built-in bookshelves and a charming brick fireplace with gas logs, while the family room includes a freestanding fireplace with gas logs as well. A ramp leading to the covered front porch provides accessibility and ease of entry. Other outdoor features include a 2-car attached carport and a back deck, plus mature shade trees in the front and back yard. Located just north of downtown Franklin with convenient access to both Bowling Green and Nashville. Call today to schedule your private showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,278 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$954/yr (+$79/mo · 72.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$6,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $-265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Simpson County
• NCES district ID: 2105400
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $41,691
• Composite: 28.69/100
• National rank: #6692
• State rank: #72 of 165 in KY

Livability — Franklin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #266
• US rank: #13010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Simpson County · 19,380 people
• City population: 19,380
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 19,380
• Household income: $59,113
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 576.0

Population outlook (Simpson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,331 people
• By 2030: 19,921 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 20,975 · +8.5%
• By 2050: 21,736 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 23,536 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 23,054 · +19.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Simpson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.9) · D 27.4% · R 71.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.1pp toward R · 2008: -22.7pp · 2024: -43.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.9 2020: R+36.7 2016: R+39.0 2012: R+24.1 2008: R+22.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.92%
• Current HPI: 221.6725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-1.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $269,900 RASKMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $269,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $274,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listed $274,900 RASKMLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,324 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.