3509 3rd St · Baltimore, MD 21225

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 928 sqft · Townhouse public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1944 1,392 sqft lot $145/sqft · at area comps Est $135k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely Brick 2 story with basement townhome in quiet neighborhood. Must see!

Key facts

• Built 1944
• Listed 78 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $533 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $127k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Maree Garnett Farring Elementary/Middle (math 3% / reading 8%, grade F, #761 of 860 statewide, top 89%, 694 students, 62% FRL); Baltimore Polytechnic Institute (math 71% / reading 84%, grade A-, #22 of 222 statewide, top 10%, 1,555 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 79% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 12% district-wide (+30 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Baltimore City Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.1% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($127k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.93%
• DSCR: 1.75
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,072
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -0.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
415 Cambria St	0.22mi	3/1.0	968 (+4%)	3mo	$76,000	$79	80
407 Cambria St	0.21mi	2/1.0 (-1)	968 (+4%)	4mo	$61,600	$64	75
3571 Horton Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0 (-1)	826 (-11%)	1mo	$25,000	$30	71
526 Maude Ave	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,020 (+10%)	9mo	$74,900	$73	66
827 Pontiac Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	960 (+3%)	8mo	$77,000	$80	63
3601 9th St	0.56mi	3/1.0	960 (+3%)	7mo	$35,000	$36	63
4009 6th St	0.53mi	3/1.5	952 (+3%)	8mo	$159,900	$168	63
3916 2nd St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,024 (+10%)	2mo	$247,000	$241	57
3613 4th St	0.19mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,038 (+12%)	6mo	$215,000	$207	55
4132 Doris Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	992 (+7%)	1mo	$215,000	$217	53
3731 10th St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (+12%)	3mo	$125,000	$120	40
3708 10th St	0.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	810 (-13%)	6mo	$88,500	$109	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $14,043
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $64,128
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21225

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,779 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,289/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $533

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,103

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $610	-5% $572	+0% $533	+5% $495	+10% $457
Rent	-10% $393	-5% $463	+0% $533	+5% $604	+10% $674
Rate	-1.0pp $601	-0.5pp $568	base $533	+0.5pp $498	+1.0pp $463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3513 Horton Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1020	$1,600	$1.57	19d	1	0.04mi
3528 6th St Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.5	1060	$1,500	$1.42	19d	1	0.24mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	6d	1	0.34mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	25d	1	0.34mi
507 Washburn Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,500	$2.44	21d	1	0.34mi
3840 8th St Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	1088	$1,606	$1.48	6d	1	0.50mi
4207 3rd St Unit 3 Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	6d	1	0.58mi
4206 Audrey Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	3.0	1104	$1,950	$1.77	25d	1	0.64mi
4206 Audrey Ave Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,275	$1.15	45d	1	0.64mi
217 W Edgevale Rd Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	992	$1,800	$1.81	25d	1	0.64mi
4400 4th St Unit BASEMENT Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	925	$1,350	$1.46	45d	1	0.65mi
3826 10th St Unit Entire House Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1110	$2,400	$2.16	25d	1	0.68mi
1049 E Patapsco Ave Unit a Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	748	$1,257	$1.68	45d	1	0.73mi
1305 E Patapsco Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.5	930	$1,650	$1.77	6d	1	0.86mi
511 Seagull Ave Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	756	$1,550	$2.05	25d	1	0.89mi
1353 Cambria St Brooklyn, MD	3.0	2.0	986	$1,600	$1.62	19d	1	0.93mi
1 Ballman Ct Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	1.03mi
5215 Wasena Ave Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,650	$1.60	45d	1	1.04mi
5227 Patrick Henry Dr Brooklyn, MD	2.0	1.0	736	$1,326	$1.80	23d	1	1.09mi
4216 Prudence St Curtis Bay, MD	4.0	3.0	1116	$2,100	$1.88	45d	1	1.13mi
2868 Potee St Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	720	$1,599	$2.22	3d	22	1.15mi
2745 Round Rd Brooklyn, MD	2.0	2.0	756	$1,800	$2.38	45d	1	1.32mi
2454 Terra Firma Rd Brooklyn, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,650	$1.61	16d	1	1.35mi
3010 Alabama Ave Halethorpe, MD	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	19d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 59 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 58 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    listed $135,000 Active 76-char remark

    Show marketing remark (76 chars)

    Lovely Brick 2 story with basement townhome in quiet neighborhood. Must see!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,289 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,380 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: +$91/yr (+$8/mo · 7.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,343
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,289
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,707
• − Management: −$1,707
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,475
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,074
• After-tax cash flow: $5,328/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 34,062
• Household income: $54,020
• Rent vs Own: 50.4% rent · 49.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1440.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 42% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.44%
• Current HPI: 254.5089
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,289 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.