16401 San Pablo Ave #450 · Montalvin Manor, CA 94806

$140,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 77 Days on market

Built 1969 $104/sqft · at area comps Est $134k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come View this Grand Style Double Wide In The Tara Hills Senior mobile home park by San Pablo Bay! The Flowing Floor Plan includes Master Bedroom and Master Bath, Guest Bedroom and Guest Bath, Living Room, Dining Room, Family Room, Refreshment Bar, Laundry Closet and Formal Entry Way! Enjoy Outside Relaxation on the Spacious Side Porch Deck and Low Maintenance Side Yard and Vinyl Storage Shed! Make a Showing Appointment Today that fits your Schedule!!!

Key facts

• Vinyl storage shed
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Tags

• SPACIOUS SIDE PORCH DECK
• LOW MAINTENANCE SIDE YARD
• VINYL STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#262 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• West Contra Costa Unified (suburban): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #993 of 1,400 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.48%
• DSCR: 2.76
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,783
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 4.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16401 San Pablo Ave #280	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	2mo	$260,000	$197	89
16401 San Pablo Ave #429	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	3mo	$200,000	$146	86
16401 San Pablo Ave #338	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	8mo	$120,000	$86	79
16401 San Pablo Ave #263	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$215,000	$172	75
16401 San Pablo Ave #245	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$150,000	$125	74
16401 San Pablo Ave #413	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	11mo	$160,000	$111	72
16401 San Pablo Ave #131	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,368 (+2%)	22mo	$140,000	$102	70
16401 San Pablo Ave #433	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,428 (+6%)	11mo	$260,000	$182	69
16401 San Pablo Ave #103	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,286 (-4%)	23mo	$142,500	$111	68
16401 San Pablo Ave #434	0.17mi	2/1.0	1,200 (-11%)	8mo	$109,950	$92	63
16401 San Pablo Ave #344	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	17mo	$220,000	$176	62
16401 San Pablo Ave #113	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-15%)	20mo	$197,500	$173	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $59,675
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.05×
• Total profit: $158,624
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94806

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,857 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$600
• Net cashflow: $1,290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2633 Rim Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1187	$3,500	$2.95	43d	1	0.25mi
2689 Limerick Rd San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1170	$3,650	$3.12	43d	1	0.71mi
2275 Cypress Ave San Pablo, CA	3.0	2.0	1204	$3,095	$2.57	16d	1	0.79mi
3400 Richmond Pkwy San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	906	$2,417	$2.67	1d	67	0.91mi
2601 Hilltop Dr San Pablo, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	963	$3,279	$3.40	1d	21	0.99mi
3614 Stoneglen S San Pablo, CA	2.0	2.0	1176	$2,395	$2.04	43d	1	1.34mi
530 Sunnyview Dr Pinole, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,199	$2.23	1d	16	1.36mi
2131 Stanton Ave Unit F San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,275	$2.53	5d	1	1.43mi
2131 Stanton Ave San Pablo, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,999	$2.10	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-11
   listed $140,000 Active 456-char remark

   Show marketing remark (456 chars)

   Come View this Grand Style Double Wide In The Tara Hills Senior mobile home park by San Pablo Bay! The Flowing Floor Plan includes Master Bedroom and Master Bath, Guest Bedroom and Guest Bath, Living Room, Dining Room, Family Room, Refreshment Bar, Laundry Closet and Formal Entry Way! Enjoy Outside Relaxation on the Spacious Side Porch Deck and Low Maintenance Side Yard and Vinyl Storage Shed! Make a Showing Appointment Today that fits your Schedule!!!

2. 2022-05-02
   soldstatus $115,000 Sold 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

3. 2022-05-02
   soldstatus $115,000 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

4. 2022-04-29
   status Pending 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

5. 2022-04-17
   status Pending - Show for Backups 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

6. 2022-04-13
   price $115,000 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

7. 2022-04-09
   price $133,000 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

8. 2022-03-31
   price $138,000 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

9. 2022-03-21
   status Back On Market 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

10. 2022-03-13
    status Pending - Show for Backups 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

11. 2022-02-25
    listed $150,000 New 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

12. 2022-02-25
    listed $115,000 372-char remark

    Show marketing remark (372 chars)

    Come View This Grand Style Home in The Tara Hill's Senior Community! This Flowing Floor Plan Includes Large Master Bedroom And Bath, Guest Bedroom And Bath,Family Room,Formal Entry Way,Living And Dining Room. Enjoy Outside Relaxation On The Side Porch Sun Deck! It is Ready To Show Today With Brand New Carpet And Fresh Paint! Schedule A Showing That Fits Your Schedule!!!

13. 1999-02-25
    soldstatus $29,000
14. 1999-01-08
    historical
15. 1998-11-14
    listed $29,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,743
• − Management: −$2,743
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $14,087
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,381
• After-tax cash flow: $12,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Contra Costa Unified
• NCES district ID: 0632550
• Math proficiency: 24% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,837
• Composite: 30.04/100
• National rank: #11623
• State rank: #993 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Montalvin Manor

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #262
• US rank: #8705

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montalvin Manor, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 62,546
• Household income: $86,034
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2830.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% Two or more races 16% Asian 16% Black 13% White 12% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 2% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 38% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 43% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -665.89%
• Current HPI: 323.0082
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.06%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+367.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $140,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-05-02 Sold (MLS) $115,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2022-05-02 Sold (MLS) $115,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-04-29 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-04-17 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-04-13 Price Changed $115,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-04-09 Price Changed $133,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-03-31 Price Changed $138,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-03-21 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-03-13 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-02-25 Listed $115,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2022-02-25 Listed $150,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-02-25 Sold (MLS) $29,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-01-08 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-11-14 Listed $29,950 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR