4143 Yosemite Blvd Unit A8 · Empire, CA 95357

$38,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 620 sqft · Manufactured · 157 Days on market

Built 1966 Est $62k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

All Ages park, pet friendly.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1966
• Listed 157 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 4143 Yosemite Blvd Unit A8, Modesto, CA 95357
• Financial info: Monthly land lease fee applies
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in laundry
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Built in 1966; Located in a land-lease community (land lease applies)
• Construction: Metal roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured construction (make: STAR)
• Exterior features: Backyard with fencing; Regular-shaped lot; Covered patio; Uncovered deck; Storage shed/structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Synthetic countertops; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tile and shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace; Ceiling fan(s); Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Dining and living area combined; Covered patio and uncovered deck; Storage structure on property; Pets allowed
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups only; 220V outlet in laundry

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $38,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$62,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,013 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Empire Union Elementary (suburban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #398 of 517 in CA (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.58%
• DSCR: 5.61
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4143 Yosemite Blvd Unit A11	0.02mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+13%)	21mo	$70,000	$100	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $52,361
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.37×
• Total profit: $121,009
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95357

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 93
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $945	-5% $932	+0% $918	+5% $905	+10% $892
Rent	-10% $800	-5% $859	+0% $918	+5% $977	+10% $1,037
Rate	-1.0pp $938	-0.5pp $928	base $918	+0.5pp $909	+1.0pp $899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Lincoln Ave Modesto, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	898	$1,495	$1.66	15d	11	1.16mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $38,000 Pending 157 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $11,076
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,658
• After-tax cash flow: $8,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Empire Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0612690
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,808
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8193
• State rank: #398 of 517 in CA

Livability — Empire

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #24920

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Empire, CA
• Population (ZIP): 14,283

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 37% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 5% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.94%
• Current HPI: 283.9315
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B