414 Welch Street Plan · Uhland, TX 78640

$124,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Manufactured · 155 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition $68/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.4

Listing remarks MLS

Charming corner lot home available for lease! This beautiful property boasts 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and an extra den perfect for an office or playroom. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity! Call today to schedule a tour and see all that this home has to offer! All home series, floor plans, specifications, dimensions, features, materials, pricing and availability shown on this website are subject to change.

Key facts

• Listed 154 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $124,995 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$250,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.8% in Uhland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#1,385 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hemphill El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 577 students, 71% FRL); D J Red Simon Middle (math 16% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,466 of 1,662 statewide, top 89%, 733 students, 78% FRL); Lehman H S (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,120 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 43% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hays CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 2089 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 54d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.89%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $250,000
• List price: $124,995
• Delta: -50.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2674 Cotton Gin Rd	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (-9%)	1mo	$160,000	$95	50
2770 Cotton Gin Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,984 (+7%)	17mo	$275,000	$139	45
171 Rolling Meadows Ln	1.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,052 (+11%)	4mo	$250,000	$122	38
313 Rolling Meadows Ln	0.89mi	3/2.0	2,128 (+15%)	5mo	$349,999	$164	36
30 Summer Sun Cv	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-18%)	16mo	$265,000	$175	27
44 S Old Spanish Trl S	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-15%)	14mo	$350,000	$223	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-13,140
• Equity at exit: $18,637

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-12,125
• Equity at exit: $10,807

Cash invested: $34,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 4 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $112,495 ($69/sqft)
• Median days on market: 207 d
• This list price: 75% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +94.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 2089
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $124,995

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $215	+0% $172	+5% $129	+10% $85
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $120	+0% $172	+5% $223	+10% $275
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $204	base $172	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,249
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
129 Pineland Ave Niederwald, TX	3.0	2.0	1512	$1,349	$0.89	13d	1	0.03mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	73d	1	0.44mi
177 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,525	$1.03	93d	1	0.44mi
151 Pink Footed Pass Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,600	$1.08	73d	1	0.46mi
263 Speckled Belly Bnd Uhland, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,600	$1.00	34d	1	0.54mi
787 Arnold Loop , TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	9d	1	1.00mi
222 Arnold Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1518	$1,673	$1.10	21d	1	1.20mi
176 Gerasa Dr Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2064	$2,100	$1.02	47d	1	1.23mi
408 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1533	$1,695	$1.11	42d	1	1.28mi
321 Sandringham Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	3.0	2473	$1,900	$0.77	53d	1	1.30mi
191 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2068	$1,899	$0.92	93d	1	1.34mi
259 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1554	$1,895	$1.22	73d	1	1.36mi
235 Frogmore Loop Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2034	$1,995	$0.98	21d	1	1.37mi
127 Levi Lndg Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,200	$1.09	67d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $124,995 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $124,995 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $124,995 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $124,995 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $124,995 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $124,995 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $124,995 Active 145 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $124,995 Active 144 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $124,995 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $124,995 Active 140 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $124,995 Active 139 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $124,995 Active 138 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $124,995 Active 137 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $124,995 Active 136 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,995 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $124,995 Active 133 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $124,995 Active 132 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $124,995 Active 131 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $124,995 Active 130 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $124,995 Active 129 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $124,995 Active 128 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $124,995 Active 127 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $124,995 Active 126 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $124,995 Active 125 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $124,995 Active 123 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $124,995 Active 122 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $124,995 Active 121 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $124,995 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $124,995 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $124,995 Active 117 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $124,995 Active 116 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $124,995 Active 115 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $124,995 Active 114 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $124,995 Active 113 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $124,995 Active 112 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $124,995 Active 110 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $124,995 Active 108 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $124,995 Active 107 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $124,995 Active 104 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $124,995 Active 103 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $124,995 Active 102 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $124,995 Active 101 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $124,995 Active 99 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $124,995 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $124,995 Active 94 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,995 Active 93 DOM
47. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,995 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,995 Active 89 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,995 Active 88 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,995 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,729
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $75
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $2,043/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Adding a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hemphill El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle D J Red Simon Middle F TX #1,466/1,662 Nat'l #11,948/14,009 High Lehman H S F TX #1,234/1,632 Nat'l #12,251/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 54/100

Livability — Uhland

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #1385
• US rank: #23774

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Uhland, TX
• County: Hays County · 286,948 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $124,995 Zillow
• 2025-03-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-02-09 Listed $134,995 Zillow