17808 Depot Rd · McKenney, VA 23872

$122,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1964 13 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Charming two-bedroom cottage nestled on 13 secluded acres in Dinwiddie County — ideal for a hunting cabin or a tranquil weekend retreat from the city. House needs updating and is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• Two bedroom cottage
• Weekend retreat
• Secluded acres

Tags

• TWO BEDROOM COTTAGE
• SECLUDED ACRES
• HUNTING CABIN
• WEEKEND RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $122k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $944 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $122k).
• Recommended offer: $120k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#441 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dinwiddie County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #81 of 131 in VA (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunnyside Elementary (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 247 students, 87% FRL); Dinwiddie County Middle (math 34% / reading 62%, grade C-, #247 of 342 statewide, top 74%, 958 students, 84% FRL); Dinwiddie County High (math 51% / reading 70%, grade C+, #244 of 319 statewide, top 77%, 1,290 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (39 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 82 units permitted in Dinwiddie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($843 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Dinwiddie County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $43k; list at $122k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,170 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.17%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.70×
• Total profit: $126,545
• Equity at exit: $109,907

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 10.52×
• Total profit: $325,270
• Equity at exit: $237,019

Cash invested: $34,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23872

• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$640
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $349/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $944

Break-even live

Break-even rent $911

Max offer price $122,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,013	-5% $979	+0% $944	+5% $910	+10% $875
Rent	-10% $778	-5% $861	+0% $944	+5% $1,028	+10% $1,111
Rate	-1.0pp $1,006	-0.5pp $975	base $944	+0.5pp $913	+1.0pp $881

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,500
• Closing costs: $3,660
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-03-31
   soldstatus $43,000
2. 2025-05-22
   status Pending
3. 2025-04-25
   listed $122,000 Active
4. 2024-10-01
   status Under Contract
5. 2024-09-10
   listed $30,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $349 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$651/yr (+$54/mo · 186.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,277
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,834
• − Property taxes: −$349
• − Insurance: −$610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$3,549
• Taxable income: $9,890
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,374
• After-tax cash flow: $8,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dinwiddie County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101170
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $51,857
• Composite: 46.62/100
• National rank: #2413
• State rank: #81 of 131 in VA

Livability — McKenney

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #18946

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,511
• Population (ZIP): 2,511

Population outlook (Dinwiddie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,876 people
• By 2030: 27,480 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 26,285 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 24,617 · -11.7%
• By 2075: 21,647 · -22.3%
• By 2100: 18,485 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 35% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Scandinavian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Korean 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Dinwiddie

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.1% · R 61.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.0pp toward R · 2008: -2.2pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+12.4 2012: R+2.6 2008: R+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 80.66%
• Current HPI: 295.8892
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+43.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-22 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $122,000 CVRMLS
• 2024-10-01 Pending — REINMLS
• 2024-09-10 Listed $30,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $349 · -37.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.