Plan 1605 Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$193,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 169 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Granite kitchen countertops * Dedicated laundry room * Smart thermostat * Kitchen island * Stainless steel appliances * Walk-in kitchen pantry * Open floor plan * Extra storage space * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned park * Planned splash pad * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks

Key facts

• Kitchen island
• Smart thermostat
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN KITCHEN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. The $193,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,066.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($945/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.5% in New Caney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1413 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,715 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $221,066
• List price: $193,995
• Delta: -12.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26714 Saddle Rock Ln	0.87mi	4/2.0	1,648 (+3%)	7mo	$235,000	$143	55
26763 Royal Coach Ln	0.89mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-1%)	6mo	$300,000	$189	53
27665 Peach Creek Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,456 (-9%)	11mo	$240,000	$165	51
20135 Timber Line Ln	0.90mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-5%)	2mo	$240,000	$157	50
27634 Peach Creek Dr	0.48mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,513 (-6%)	16mo	$234,900	$155	48
20731 Pin Oak Rd	0.87mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,526 (-5%)	12mo	$290,000	$190	42
27015 Coach Light Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-10%)	12mo	$219,900	$153	39
26961 Lantern Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,909 (+19%)	9mo	$295,000	$155	33
20490 Lazy Creek Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,888 (+18%)	5mo	$350,000	$185	30
26990 Royal Coach Ln	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,363 (-15%)	12mo	$150,000	$110	29
20748 Lazy Creek Dr	0.87mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,800 (+12%)	12mo	$340,000	$189	28
19947 Timber Line Ln	0.85mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,370 (-15%)	15mo	$275,000	$201	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,332
• Equity at exit: $32,962

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,609
• Equity at exit: $19,114

Cash invested: $61,899 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 13 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $204,990 ($125/sqft)
• Median days on market: 169 d
• This list price: 31% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1413
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$276 /mo · $3,316/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,934

Max offer price $221,066

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $155	+0% $79	+5% $2	+10% $-74
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-2	+0% $79	+5% $159	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $135	base $79	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,267
• Closing costs: $6,632
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26414 FM 1485 Rd New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1408	$1,375	$0.98	38d	1	1.25mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: New Caney, TX 77357
• Financial info: List price $205,995

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 parking spaces total
• Home design: New construction plan (Plan 1605)
• Construction: Built as Plan 1605 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1605 (per plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $193,995 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $193,995 Active 168 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $193,995 Active 167 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $193,995 Active 166 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $193,995 Active 165 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $193,995 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $193,995 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $193,995 Active 162 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $193,995 Active 161 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $193,995 Active 160 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $193,995 Active 159 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $193,995 Active 158 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $193,995 Active 157 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $193,995 Active 156 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $193,995 Active 150 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $193,995 Active 149 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $193,995 Active 147 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $193,995 Active 145 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $193,995 Active 144 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $193,995 Active 143 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $193,995 Active 142 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $193,995 Active 141 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $193,995 Active 139 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $193,995 Active 138 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $193,995 Active 137 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $193,995 Active 136 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $193,995 Active 135 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $193,995 Active 134 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $193,995 Active 133 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $193,995 Active 132 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $193,995 Active 131 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $193,995 Active 130 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $193,995 Active 129 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $193,995 Active 128 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $193,995 Active 127 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $193,995 Active 126 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $193,995 Active 125 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $193,995 Active 124 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $193,995 Active 123 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $193,995 Active 122 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $193,995 Active 120 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $193,995 Active 119 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $193,995 Active 118 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $193,995 Active 117 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $193,995 Active 114 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $193,995 Active 112 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $193,995 Active 111 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $193,995 Active 109 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $193,995 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $193,995 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,402
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,383
• − Property taxes: −$3,316
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,952
• − Management: −$1,952
• − Depreciation: −$6,431
• Taxable loss: −$2,738
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$657
• After-tax cash flow: $1,602/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,025–$24,075 screening

This single-family home in Roman Forest, TX, is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and low-E windows. The smart thermostat and open floor plan make it a smart and attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home automation package — Enhances convenience and appeal ↑
• Both Smart home lighting system — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: New Caney, TX 77357
• Financial info: List price $205,995

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 parking spaces total
• Home design: New construction plan (Plan 1605)
• Construction: Built as Plan 1605 (new construction)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1605 (per plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)