5830 Larkin St · Houston, TX 77007

$425,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2005 2,029 sqft lot Est $435k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5830 Larkin St, a bright, multi-level brick townhome with soaring ceilings, polished hardwood floors, and a clean modern layout throughout. The main living area feels open and airy with dramatic stacked windows, a cozy fireplace, and beautiful natural light. The kitchen features white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, an island with seating potential, and a built-in desk area for added function. The spacious primary suite offers hardwood floors, French doors, and a private bath with dual vanity, soaking tub, separate shower, and walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide flexible space for sleeping, working from home, or guests. The home also include

Key facts

• Primary bath
• French doors
• Separate shower

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• FRENCH DOORS
• PATIO
• PRIMARY BATH
• JETTED TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered; Seller disclosure available

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2005; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (used as bedrooms/rooms)
• Flooring: Engineered hardwood; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Pantry; Open living/dining area; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $471 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hogg Middle (math 44% / reading 48%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,120 students, 52% FRL); Waltrip H S (math 15% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,342 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,597 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.75%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $435,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5903 Petty St Unit F	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,164 (-1%)	2mo	$505,000	$233	92
5734 Petty St	0.14mi	3/3.5	2,448 (+12%)	2mo	$545,000	$223	67
5540 Nolda St	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-8%)	1mo	$400,000	$200	65
6605 Letein St	0.45mi	3/2.5	2,344 (+8%)	1mo	$550,000	$235	65
1506 Birdsall St	0.57mi	3/3.5	2,124 (-2%)	1mo	$425,000	$200	65
1628 Mcdonald St	0.28mi	3/3.5	2,420 (+11%)	0mo	$575,000	$238	64
5976 Kansas St	0.29mi	3/4.5	1,978 (-9%)	1mo	$359,000	$181	62
1510 Birdsall St	0.56mi	3/3.5	2,268 (+4%)	1mo	$389,000	$172	62
5410A Nolda St	0.57mi	3/3.5	2,346 (+8%)	1mo	$669,900	$286	56
5310 Larkin St Unit B	0.67mi	3/3.5	2,354 (+8%)	1mo	$399,000	$169	50
5311 Kiam St Unit B	0.69mi	3/3.5	2,347 (+8%)	2mo	$469,000	$200	50
5336 Petty St Unit C	0.61mi	3/3.5	2,467 (+13%)	1mo	$449,000	$182	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-51,854
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-56,608
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77007

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,470 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$655 /mo · $7,863/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$939
• Net cashflow: $471

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,875

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $711	-5% $591	+0% $471	+5% $350	+10% $230
Rent	-10% $117	-5% $294	+0% $471	+5% $647	+10% $824
Rate	-1.0pp $685	-0.5pp $579	base $471	+0.5pp $360	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5732 Darling St Unit 1056419P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2400	$7,771	$3.24	44d	1	0.14mi
5620 Petty St Unit 1019538P Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2884	$16,259	$5.64	22d	1	0.32mi
5620 Petty St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2891	$8,750	$3.03	44d	1	0.32mi
5530 Kiam St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2688	$9,750	$3.63	44d	1	0.42mi
5530 Kiam St Unit 1019540P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2680	$15,799	$5.90	44d	1	0.42mi
2103 Radcliffe St Unit 1225772P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,729	$2.63	8d	1	0.47mi
2210 Radcliffe St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2066	$2,716	$1.31	8d	1	0.49mi
5427 Kansas St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2156	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	0.55mi
5811 Maxie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2226	$3,000	$1.35	44d	1	0.56mi
543 T C Jester Blvd Unit 1225766P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2389	$5,557	$2.33	0d	1	0.60mi
5336 Darling St Unit 1225767P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2292	$5,997	$2.62	0d	1	0.64mi
929 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1375	$9,263	$6.74	0d	21	0.67mi
3001 W 11th St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$4,533	$4.40	0d	50	0.68mi
920 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,306	$2.81	0d	25	0.68mi
5610 Schuler St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2614	$3,111	$1.19	6d	1	0.70mi
5235 Petty St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2532	$3,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.76mi
5454 Washington Ave Unit 5487 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,726	$1.89	11d	1	0.84mi
5454 Washington Ave Unit 525 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,732	$1.89	0d	1	0.84mi
5305 Nett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2104	$2,950	$1.40	25d	1	0.88mi
5108 Larkin St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2108	$2,850	$1.35	45d	1	0.90mi
5237 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2284	$2,995	$1.31	44d	1	0.96mi
4917 Nolda St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1764	$5,000	$2.83	25d	1	1.02mi
4510 Inker St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2293	$4,500	$1.96	44d	1	1.30mi
4608 Nett St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2261	$3,750	$1.66	44d	1	1.30mi
4508 Maxie St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1700	$3,003	$1.77	15d	1	1.32mi
1306 Dian St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2151	$3,250	$1.51	0d	1	1.37mi
5359 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$2,562	$1.73	44d	1	1.39mi
4311 Marina St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2328	$3,599	$1.55	44d	1	1.41mi
4444 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2121	$3,200	$1.51	44d	1	1.43mi
5201 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$3,361	$3.14	0d	17	1.45mi
1723 W 14th St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2373	$3,400	$1.43	21d	1	1.46mi
5353 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1118	$3,095	$2.77	2d	19	1.49mi
1126 W 16th St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2494	$4,295	$1.72	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $425,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $425,000 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $425,000 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $425,000 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $425,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $425,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $425,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $425,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $425,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 8 DOM
14. 2026-05-23
    listed $425,000 Active
15. 2025-03-26
    historical $2,800
16. 2025-03-08
    listed $2,800
17. 2006-04-10
    listed $1,800
18. 2006-04-10
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,863 · $655/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,863 · $655/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$7,863
• − Insurance: −$2,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,292
• − Management: −$4,292
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$1,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$263
• After-tax cash flow: $5,910/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,808
• Household income: $144,911
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 11% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.42%
• Current HPI: 159.8157
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+23511.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-26 Rental Removed $2,800 HARMLS
• 2025-03-08 Listed for Rent $2,800 HARMLS
• 2006-04-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-04-10 Listed $1,800 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,863 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.