Mulberry Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 135 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Elevon, a captivating master-planned community situated in the scenic town of Lavon, Texas. Capturing the essence of small-town charm and providing residents with a peaceful and picturesque lifestyle away from the city's hustle and bustle is the heart of this community. Conveniently located with easy access to Plano, Garland, and Dallas, Elevon offers the perfect blend of urban convenience and rural tranquility. Residents can explore Lavon's stunning natural landscapes, enjoying a variety of outdoor activities at Lavon Lake and the community's extensive parks and trails. Here isn't just a place to live-it's a lifestyle.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 134 days

🏗️ New construction. The $289,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,512.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1084 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 72d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 65% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $231,512 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.36%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,512
• List price: $289,900
• Delta: -2.88%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
471 Sweet Spring Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,525 (+2%)	6mo	$259,970	$170	86
1232 Little Bridge Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,504 (+0%)	5mo	$281,990	$187	74
295 Bright Alcove Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,608 (+7%)	2mo	$309,990	$193	73
1021 Lovely Day Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,691 (+13%)	5mo	$336,960	$199	72
746 Gentle Bird Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+5%)	4mo	$272,990	$174	66
336 Silent Pond Park	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,581 (+5%)	2mo	$289,990	$183	65
468 Tender Smt	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+10%)	0mo	$276,990	$168	62
489 Pleasant Field Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+10%)	6mo	$294,990	$179	59
436 Silent Pond Park	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+10%)	5mo	$299,990	$182	55
444 Silent Pond Park	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+13%)	1mo	$278,990	$164	50
755 Hidden Feather Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+13%)	5mo	$288,990	$170	48
418 Silent Pond Park	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+13%)	5mo	$284,990	$168	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,240
• Equity at exit: $44,509

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-74,118
• Equity at exit: $25,810

Cash invested: $83,583 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 78 active · 26 under contract
• Months of supply: 22.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $307,950 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 135 d
• This list price: 32% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 1084
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,315 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,565
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$373 /mo · $4,478/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,611

Max offer price $264,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-131	+0% $-234	+5% $-337	+10% $-440
Rent	-10% $-417	-5% $-325	+0% $-234	+5% $-143	+10% $-51
Rate	-1.0pp $-84	-0.5pp $-158	base $-234	+0.5pp $-311	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,628
• Closing costs: $8,955
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1353	$1,997	$1.48	78d	1	0.12mi
1060 Happy Holly Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1434	$1,997	$1.39	71d	1	0.12mi
257 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2164	$2,500	$1.16	134d	1	0.34mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,200	$1.15	10d	1	0.38mi
241 Bright Alcove Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$2,500	$1.17	10d	1	0.40mi
208 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,500	$1.15	37d	1	0.42mi
208 Hope Orchards Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2174	$2,350	$1.08	5d	1	0.42mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	184d	1	0.53mi
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,599	$1.33	56d	1	0.62mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	184d	1	0.62mi
361 Elevon Pkwy Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,398	$1.16	86d	1	0.62mi
610 Overlook Pt Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1643	$2,000	$1.22	10d	1	1.06mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,275	$2.25	0d	62	1.06mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,322	$2.03	0d	13	1.13mi
621 Cherish Day Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,045	$1.45	104d	1	1.20mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 9107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,499	$1.24	84d	1	1.22mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 7107 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,499	$1.24	2d	1	1.22mi
402 Coyote Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	2114	$2,195	$1.04	73d	1	1.24mi
756 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$2,100	$1.32	10d	1	1.27mi
670 Parkside Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1981	$2,300	$1.16	2d	1	1.29mi
772 Soar Sky Way Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,350	$1.26	25d	1	1.30mi
856 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,000	$1.20	10d	1	1.30mi
275 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1831	$1,889	$1.03	49d	1	1.30mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	50d	1	1.31mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	29d	1	1.31mi
848 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	73d	1	1.31mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	184d	1	1.31mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,250	$1.55	5d	1	1.32mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	143d	1	1.32mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,000	$1.37	95d	1	1.34mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	184d	1	1.34mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	134d	1	1.35mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	184d	1	1.36mi
248 Braves Way Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1748	$2,400	$1.37	10d	1	1.39mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	184d	1	1.39mi
179 Cyprus Grove Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$2,495	$1.38	110d	1	1.40mi
609 Nature Stroll Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,995	$1.30	65d	1	1.45mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	165d	1	1.45mi
242 Maverick Ct Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2250	$2,050	$0.91	110d	1	1.46mi
649 Lightheart Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,200	$1.51	38d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)Address: 1004 Joy Mill Pl, Lavon TX 75166
• Construction: New construction (Mulberry plan)
• Exterior features: Living area about 1,500

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan Mulberry (new construction, active)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $289,900 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $289,900 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $289,900 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $289,900 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $289,900 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $289,900 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $289,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $289,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $289,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 125 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 119 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 118 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 117 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 116 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 115 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $289,900 Active 114 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $289,900 Active 113 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $289,900 Active 112 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $289,900 Active 111 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $289,900 Active 110 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $289,900 Active 109 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $289,900 Active 108 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $289,900 Active 107 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $289,900 Active 106 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $289,900 Active 105 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 104 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 103 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $289,900 Active 102 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $289,900 Active 101 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $289,900 Active 100 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 99 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 98 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 97 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 96 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $289,900 Active 95 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $289,900 Active 94 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $289,900 Active 93 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $289,900 Active 92 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $289,900 Active 91 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $289,900 Active 90 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $289,900 Active 89 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $289,900 Active 88 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $289,900 Active 87 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $289,900 Active 86 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $289,900 Active 85 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,721
• − Property taxes: −$4,478
• − Insurance: −$1,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$8,684
• Taxable loss: −$8,039
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,929
• After-tax cash flow: $-879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready and has a good curb appeal. The home has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

High Community H S F TX #941/1,632 Nat'l #9,497/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $289,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)Address: 1004 Joy Mill Pl, Lavon TX 75166
• Construction: New construction (Mulberry plan)
• Exterior features: Living area about 1,500

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan Mulberry (new construction, active)