11360 E Keats Ave #66 · Mesa, AZ 85209

$315,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · Condo public records · 153 Days on market

Built 2000 $251/sqft · 8% below area Est $342k · 8% under $358/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this charming 2-bedroom townhome in the popular Sunland Springs Village! Inside, you'll find an open layout with wood-look flooring, carpet in all the right places, and a soothing palette that makes every area perfect for entertaining and relaxation. Whip up your signature dishes in the pristine kitchen, displaying cabinets adorned with crown molding, tile backsplash, a spacious peninsula with a breakfast bar, a pantry, and built-in appliances. The primary retreat promises a good night's sleep and boasts a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. The screened-in patio is perfect for casual dining. Enjoy your morning brew on the patio, and remember to visit the community's pool, spa, golf, workout facility, and tennis court, just to mention a few! Hurry up, this one won't last!

Key facts

• Wood look flooring
• Open layout
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• WOOD LOOK FLOORING
• CROWN MOLDING
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• BREAKFAST BAR
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-545 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (30.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (30.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (30.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.4% in Mesa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#6 in AZ, #2,034 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D.
• Gilbert Unified District (4239) (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #38 of 249 in AZ (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 165 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 153 days — a 12% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $141k; list at $315k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,142 (30.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 153 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.42%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,186
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -7.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.44% appreciation · 0.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-27,169
• Equity at exit: $114,812

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-20,855
• Equity at exit: $158,369

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85209

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,181 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$358
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,871

Max offer price $218,703

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2101 S Yellow Wood #60 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1371	$2,600	$1.90	1d	1	0.29mi
2101 S Yellow Wood #45 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,649	$1.53	43d	1	0.29mi
10865 E Keats Ave Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1165	$2,550	$2.19	24d	1	0.51mi
2350 S Olivewood #106 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1081	$1,595	$1.48	3d	1	0.72mi
3454 S Warner Dr Apache Junction, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	24d	1	0.94mi
10529 E Hampton Ave Mesa, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$2,567	$2.70	5d	32	1.08mi
3000 W Southern Ave Apache Junction, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	836	$1,719	$2.05	1d	12	1.21mi
2026 S Boca Cir Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,165	$1.49	43d	1	1.21mi
10560 E Nichols Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1704	$3,495	$2.05	24d	1	1.29mi
10638 E Olla Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1535	$2,140	$1.39	24d	1	1.31mi
11329 E Elena Ave Mesa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,695	$1.75	24d	1	1.35mi
3117 S Signal Butte Rd #587 Mesa, AZ	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,495	$1.41	3d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $358 · $4,296/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 153 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,000 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,000 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $315,000 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $315,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $315,000 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $315,000 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $315,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-03-16
    price $315,000 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Discover this charming 2-bedroom townhome in the popular Sunland Springs Village! Inside, you'll find an open layout with wood-look flooring, carpet in all the right places, and a soothing palette that makes every area perfect for entertaining and relaxation. Whip up your signature dishes in the pristine kitchen, displaying cabinets adorned with crown molding, tile backsplash, a spacious peninsula with a breakfast bar, a pantry, and built-in appliances. The primary retreat promises a good night's sleep and boasts a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. The screened-in patio is perfect for casual dining. Enjoy your morning brew on the patio, and remember to visit the community's pool, spa, golf, workout facility, and tennis court, just to mention a few! Hurry up, this one won't last!

12. 2026-01-13
    listed $325,000 Active 794-char remark

    Show marketing remark (794 chars)

    Discover this charming 2-bedroom townhome in the popular Sunland Springs Village! Inside, you'll find an open layout with wood-look flooring, carpet in all the right places, and a soothing palette that makes every area perfect for entertaining and relaxation. Whip up your signature dishes in the pristine kitchen, displaying cabinets adorned with crown molding, tile backsplash, a spacious peninsula with a breakfast bar, a pantry, and built-in appliances. The primary retreat promises a good night's sleep and boasts a walk-in closet and a private bathroom. The screened-in patio is perfect for casual dining. Enjoy your morning brew on the patio, and remember to visit the community's pool, spa, golf, workout facility, and tennis court, just to mention a few! Hurry up, this one won't last!

13. 2003-03-07
    soldstatus $141,000
14. 2001-07-11
    soldstatus $125,207

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,079 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 36.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,177
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$4,296
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$12,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,932
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbert Unified District (4239)
• NCES district ID: 0403400
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $74,715
• Composite: 45.55/100
• National rank: #2600
• State rank: #38 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Mesa

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #6
• US rank: #2034

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime D Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesa, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 555,266
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,150
• Household income: $84,432
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 972.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.44%
• Current HPI: 277.6198
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.54%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+151.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $315,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2003-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $141,000 Public Records
• 2001-07-11 Sold (Public Records) $125,207 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,528 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.