1089 Gillburg Rd · South Henderson, NC 27537

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 224 Days on market

Built 1926 1.00 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SHOWINGS start SUNDAY, Nov. 9. NO HOA or DEED RESTRICTIONS on this well-priced century-old home in a convenient country location. Nestled beneath a beautiful grove of mature oak trees, this classic 1926 home offers timeless character and great living space and the opportunity to make it your own. The inviting front porch sets the tone, leading into a warm and welcoming living-dining combination featuring rich paneled walls and hardwood flooring. The large kitchen provides plenty of space for cooking and gathering, while all three bedrooms on the main level include attractive wood flooring. A full bath serves the main floor, and there is additional partially finished space on the second lev

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1926
• Listed 224 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R30
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Propane available; Septic connected; Water connected
• Home design: House; Two levels; Fixer condition; State road frontage on a paved, publicly maintained road; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Built year not specified
• Exterior features: Private yard; Grassed and partially wooded vegetation; 210 x 210 lot dimensions; 1.0 acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central air with gas pack
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Smooth ceilings; Private yard
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($866/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#710 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 224 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1926 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 49% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 224 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1926 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,116
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,244
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27537

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,535 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $186	-5% $129	+0% $72	+5% $15	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-49	-5% $12	+0% $72	+5% $133	+10% $193
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $114	base $72	+0.5pp $29	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 224 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 221 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 220 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 212 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 211 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 210 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 205 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 204 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 203 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2025-11-19
    price $165,000
16. 2025-11-09
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 2025-11-07
    historical $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 49% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,473
• − Management: −$1,473
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$449
• After-tax cash flow: $1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Henderson

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #25701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,795

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.06%
• Current HPI: 270.3424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Contingent — TMLS
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $165,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-09 Listed $175,000 TMLS
• 2025-11-07 Coming Soon $175,000 TMLS