5431 Palm Dr · New Port Richey, FL 34652

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 888 sqft · Condo public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1971 $290/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Condo in New Port Richey. Great location. Needs some updating. Priced right! Low fees.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Community pool
• Natural light

Tags

• PRIME NEW PORT RICHEY LOCATION
• LOW HOA
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• MULTIPLE CLOSETS
• COMMUNITY POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is partially furnished; Total living area and building area reported from public records; Property zoned MF1
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association: Bill VonAxelson); Monthly condo fee $290; annual fees $3,480; Association approval required; Association fees include cable TV, common area taxes, pool, building maintenance, grounds maintenance, pest control, and trash; Senior community; Community clubhouse and pool; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential condominium; Two-story building; unit on the second floor; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Built-up roof; Slab foundation; Built on/around 000 (building number listed)
• Exterior features: Exterior storage; Pond view; In-ground pool; In-ground spa; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (located on floor 2)
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Building has no elevator
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 1.9% in New Port Richey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#67 in FL, #1,139 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D, employment F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 644 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.7% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $80k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,800 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.70%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $9,666
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $29,222
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34652

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $291/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$290
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $971

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $428	+0% $405	+5% $383	+10% $360
Rent	-10% $288	-5% $347	+0% $405	+5% $464	+10% $522
Rate	-1.0pp $445	-0.5pp $425	base $405	+0.5pp $384	+1.0pp $363

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5403 Tangerine Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	962	$1,750	$1.82	0d	1	0.11mi
4938 Azalea Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$2,000	$2.30	25d	1	0.15mi
5333 Pasadena Dr Unit 5333 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,200	$2.08	19d	1	0.17mi
4746 Azalea Dr Apt 103C Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,220	$1.21	25d	1	0.19mi
4744 Azalea Dr #204 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	736	$1,100	$1.49	21d	1	0.21mi
5227 Tangerine Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	996	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	0.22mi
4529 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.45mi
4540 Audrey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	25d	1	0.45mi
4551 Audrey Ln NEW PRT RCHY, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.45mi
4518 Audrey Ln Unit 4551 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,295	$1.73	23d	1	0.48mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	25d	2	0.52mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,600	$1.52	3d	2	0.52mi
4939 Floramar Ter New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,648	$1.57	18d	3	0.52mi
5543 Gulf Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,550	$2.08	18d	1	0.57mi
5154 Turquoise Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	708	$1,250	$1.77	6d	1	0.57mi
5197 Silent Loop #124 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	25d	1	0.58mi
5197 Silent Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	956	$2,200	$2.30	4d	1	0.58mi
5743 Elm St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	756	$1,200	$1.59	6d	1	0.59mi
5529 La Salle Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,300	$1.53	11d	1	0.60mi
5132 Amulet Dr #107 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	928	$1,395	$1.50	13d	1	0.60mi
4944 Elkner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	23d	1	0.62mi
5648 Townhouse Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	900	$1,495	$1.66	25d	1	0.62mi
4901 Onyx Ln #102 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	672	$1,295	$1.93	25d	1	0.63mi
4854 Marine Pkwy #103 New Port Richey, FL	1.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	25d	1	0.63mi
4948 Getner St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	722	$1,350	$1.87	25d	1	0.65mi
4922 Filner St New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	540	$1,000	$1.85	23d	1	0.67mi
5511 Executive Dr Apt E1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,459	$1.46	25d	1	0.70mi
4754 Marine Pkwy Unit 102-I New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	25d	1	0.71mi
5521 Executive Dr Unit D1 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,379	$1.38	25d	1	0.71mi
4616 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	898	$1,600	$1.78	21d	1	0.74mi
5543 Executive Dr Unit B4 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,459	$1.46	25d	1	0.75mi
4753 Marine Pkwy Unit 4753 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	25d	1	0.76mi
5551 Executive Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,459	$1.33	25d	1	0.77mi
4540 Irene Loop New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,550	$2.02	25d	1	0.79mi
5640 Ferguson Ct #2101 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,650	$1.56	25d	1	0.81mi
5809 Dailey Ln New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,000	$1.05	25d	1	0.82mi
5020 Vickers Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	863	$1,495	$1.73	0d	1	0.90mi
4852 Pompano Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$2,900	$2.63	25d	1	0.90mi
5567 Sea Forest Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1335	$1,795	$1.34	13d	2	0.92mi
5741 Tennessee Ave New Port Richey, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	0.96mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $290 · $3,480/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   status Active
3. 2026-04-08
   price $80,000
4. 2026-01-13
   listed $90,000 Active
5. 2014-12-11
   soldstatus $35,000
6. 1989-02-01
   soldstatus $28,000
7. 1971-01-01
   soldstatus $15,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $664 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 127.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$291
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − HOA: −$3,480
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $3,978
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$955
• After-tax cash flow: $3,907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — New Port Richey

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #1139

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Port Richey, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 137,708
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,444
• Household income: $56,931
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 310.8347
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.72%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+403.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $90,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1989-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1971-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $291 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.