Stonegate Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$346,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,607 sqft · SingleFamily · 93 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 92 days

🏗️ New construction. The $346,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $371,371.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-483 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $264k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3881 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($316k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $263,740 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.57%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $371,371
• List price: $346,900
• Delta: -6.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1433 Marcella	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,610 (+0%)	9mo	$374,970	$233	77
2040 Adriana Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+6%)	8mo	$384,980	$227	66
1432 Bramante St	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+6%)	18mo	$399,990	$236	62
2212 Fred Smith Pkwy	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (-1%)	11mo	$1,600,000	$1,004	60
1729 Barnwood Rd	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,494 (-7%)	3mo	$338,765	$227	59
1408 Bramante St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,417 (-12%)	8mo	$354,980	$251	59
1733 Sugar Maple Mews	0.47mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,507 (-6%)	4mo	$342,005	$227	57
1013 Rainshower Way	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-6%)	10mo	$381,925	$253	53
1504 Canter St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,507 (-6%)	10mo	$388,615	$258	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-98,625
• Equity at exit: $55,373

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-155,194
• Equity at exit: $32,109

Cash invested: $103,984 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 33 active · 12 under contract
• Months of supply: 39.6 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $369,990 ($216/sqft)
• Median days on market: 188 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3881
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,637 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,948
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$464 /mo · $5,571/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$554
• Net cashflow: $-483

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,249

Max offer price $301,492

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-226	-5% $-355	+0% $-483	+5% $-611	+10% $-740
Rent	-10% $-691	-5% $-587	+0% $-483	+5% $-379	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-296	-0.5pp $-388	base $-483	+0.5pp $-579	+1.0pp $-677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,843
• Closing costs: $11,141
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1421 Marcella Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2144	$2,395	$1.12	89d	1	0.24mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,450	$1.10	94d	1	0.50mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	24d	1	0.54mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,000	$1.25	20d	1	0.54mi
8110 Rawhide Rd Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2218	$3,800	$1.71	0d	1	0.71mi
2008 Winnsboro Ave Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1973	$2,300	$1.17	88d	1	0.94mi
17405 W FM 455 Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2078	$3,500	$1.68	0d	1	1.03mi
1404 Pintail Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1626	$2,150	$1.32	26d	1	1.11mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,000	$1.43	0d	1	1.16mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,100	$1.48	24d	1	1.16mi
1613 Sandhill Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$2,700	$1.36	74d	1	1.28mi
249 Lakeview Way Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,050	$1.24	45d	1	1.38mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	139d	1	1.39mi
171 Doloris Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1261	$3,495	$2.77	12d	1	1.42mi
720 Mulberry Ct Celina, TX	3.0	3.0	2093	$2,295	$1.10	76d	1	1.44mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	139d	1	1.47mi
170 Doloris Ct Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,100	$1.26	10d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $346,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Stonegate)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,607

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Stonegate)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $346,900 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $346,900 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $346,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $346,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $346,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $346,900 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $346,900 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $346,900 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $346,900 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $346,900 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $346,900 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $346,900 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $346,900 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $346,900 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $346,900 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $346,900 Active 69 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $346,900 Active 68 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $346,900 Active 67 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $346,900 Active 66 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $346,900 Active 65 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $346,900 Active 64 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $346,900 Active 63 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 62 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $346,900 Active 61 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $346,900 Active 60 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $346,900 Active 59 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $346,900 Active 58 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $346,900 Active 57 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $346,900 Active 56 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $346,900 Active 55 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $346,900 Active 54 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $346,900 Active 53 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $346,900 Active 52 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $346,900 Active 51 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $346,900 Active 50 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $346,900 Active 49 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $346,900 Active 48 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $346,900 Active 47 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $346,900 Active 46 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $346,900 Active 44 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $346,900 Active 43 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $346,900 Active 42 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $346,900 Active 41 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $346,900 Active 38 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $346,900 Active 37 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $346,900 Active 36 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $346,900 Active 35 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $346,900 Active 33 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $346,900 Active 31 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,571
• − Insurance: −$1,857
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,532
• − Management: −$2,532
• − Depreciation: −$10,804
• Taxable loss: −$12,448
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,035–$24,105 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Updated window treatments improve curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and appeal to buyers ↑
• Both Install a smart lock — A smart lock enhances security and can be a selling point for buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $346,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Stonegate)
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,607

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Stonegate)