78 Hall Dr N · Magnolia, TX 77316

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 2001 2.00 ac lot $208/sqft · 14% above area Est $220k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Horses are welcome! Beautiful wooded 4 acre tract in country neighborhood. Perfect place to build your new home. Close to the conveniences of Magnolia and schools. Call for plat.

Key facts

• Blank canvas
• Low taxes
• Spacious 2 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS 2 ACRE LOT
• FREE FROM FLOODPLAIN CONCERNS
• LOW TAXES
• AMPLE SPACE TO EXPAND
• BLANK CANVAS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry (all main rooms listed on first floor); Facing direction not provided
• Construction: Built in 2001; Wood siding; Composition roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Porch; Patio; Private yard; Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom (first floor) — 15 x 12; Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 11; Bedroom (first floor) — 12 x 11
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Interior features: Low emissivity windows; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-18 ($-221/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2300 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $250k implies a 355% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,316 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $220,109
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: 13.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,633
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-61,417
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2300
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,903 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,280/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $-18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,926

Max offer price $246,749

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $123	-5% $52	+0% $-18	+5% $-89	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-94	+0% $-18	+5% $57	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $45	base $-18	+0.5pp $-83	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $250,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,000 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $250,000 856-char remark
16. 2026-04-20
    listed $225,000 Active 856-char remark
17. 2023-05-26
    soldstatus
18. 2022-07-15
    soldstatus $55,000
19. 2010-04-27
    soldstatus 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Horses are welcome! Beautiful wooded 4 acre tract in country neighborhood. Perfect place to build your new home. Close to the conveniences of Magnolia and schools. Call for plat.

20. 2010-04-02
    historical 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Horses are welcome! Beautiful wooded 4 acre tract in country neighborhood. Perfect place to build your new home. Close to the conveniences of Magnolia and schools. Call for plat.

21. 2010-01-13
    listed $69,900 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Horses are welcome! Beautiful wooded 4 acre tract in country neighborhood. Perfect place to build your new home. Close to the conveniences of Magnolia and schools. Call for plat.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,280 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,575 · $381/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,295/yr (+$275/mo · 257.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,280
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,827
• − Management: −$1,827
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,623
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+257.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2023-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-15 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2010-04-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-04-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-01-13 Listed $69,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,280 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.