Comal Plan · Pattison, TX 77423

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily · 446 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Comal floor plan is a well-designed, three-bedroom and two-bathroom home that has a ton of character. The exterior of the home is a beautiful brick structure, with the option to swap the brick for stone. Upon entry, you are greeted by the combined flex space and family room. The flex space allows for either a fourth bedroom, a private study, a formal dining area, a quaint game room, or anything your heart desires. The spacious kitchen/breakfast area and massive family room are perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size! On the right side of the home, you are met with the walk-in utility room with access to your two-car garage, along with the second and third bedrooms. Residing in the middle of the two bedrooms is the full secondary bathroom complete with a shower/bathtub enclosure, single vanity, and a linen closet. Facing the large family room is the extensive kitchen and breakfast area boasting sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and an undermount stainless steel sink with a ceramic tile backsplash. Do you wish to be able to relax in your backyard while being protected from the weather? Opt to include an exclusive covered patio! Next to the breakfast/kitchen combination area are two more linen closets, and the entry to your Master bedroom and bathroom with a huge walk-in closet. Retreat to your master bathroom that includes the option of double vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and an additional linen closet. If. ..

Key facts

• Flex space
• Covered patio
• Walk-in utility room

Tags

• FLEX SPACE
• WALK-IN UTILITY ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• FLAT-PANEL BIRCH CABINETS
• CERAMIC TILE BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $265,781.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (10.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.4% in Pattison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#876 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Royal ISD (rural): math 23% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #744 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Royal El (math 27% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 762 students, 78% FRL); Royal J H (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 593 students, 73% FRL); Royal H S (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 842 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools at 74% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 483 units permitted in Waller County in 2024 (89 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Waller County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 446 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 446 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.74%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,781
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -7.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3016 Sunflower Ln	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (0%)	2mo	$244,990	$153	88
3104 Waxwing Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,604 (0%)	14mo	$244,990	$153	82
3133 Waxwing Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (0%)	14mo	$254,985	$159	78
3008 Plateau Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	8mo	$266,675	$171	77
3041 Plateau Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,556 (-3%)	6mo	$263,000	$169	76
3098 Arrowwood Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,533 (-4%)	13mo	$279,134	$182	72
3030 Buckthorn Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-3%)	13mo	$269,262	$173	70
3100 Waxwing Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+10%)	8mo	$259,985	$147	70
3080 Plateau Dr	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,533 (-4%)	12mo	$264,189	$172	68
3088 Waxwing Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,772 (+10%)	15mo	$269,000	$152	64
3109 Waxwing Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+12%)	14mo	$261,999	$146	57
3013 Buckthorn Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,364 (-15%)	15mo	$255,382	$187	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-56,320
• Equity at exit: $39,629

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-82,541
• Equity at exit: $22,980

Cash invested: $74,419 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77423

• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,188 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,394
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$332 /mo · $3,987/yr
• Insurance: −$111
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,325

Max offer price $250,170

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $76	-5% $-16	+0% $-108	+5% $-200	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-194	+0% $-108	+5% $-21	+10% $65
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-40	base $-108	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-247

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,445
• Closing costs: $7,973
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3005 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	1751	$1,975	$1.13	45d	1	0.17mi
3045 Wood Lily Dr Brookshire, TX	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,850	$1.21	45d	1	0.23mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $244,990 Active 446 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,990 Active 443 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 442 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 441 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 440 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,990 Active 438 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $244,990 Active 434 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,990 Active 433 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $244,990 Active 432 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 429 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 428 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 427 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,990 Active 426 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 425 DOM
15. 2025-04-01
    listed $244,990 Active 1501-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1501 chars)

    The Comal floor plan is a well-designed, three-bedroom and two-bathroom home that has a ton of character. The exterior of the home is a beautiful brick structure, with the option to swap the brick for stone. Upon entry, you are greeted by the combined flex space and family room. The flex space allows for either a fourth bedroom, a private study, a formal dining area, a quaint game room, or anything your heart desires. The spacious kitchen/breakfast area and massive family room are perfect for entertaining gatherings of any size! On the right side of the home, you are met with the walk-in utility room with access to your two-car garage, along with the second and third bedrooms. Residing in the middle of the two bedrooms is the full secondary bathroom complete with a shower/bathtub enclosure, single vanity, and a linen closet. Facing the large family room is the extensive kitchen and breakfast area boasting sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and an undermount stainless steel sink with a ceramic tile backsplash. Do you wish to be able to relax in your backyard while being protected from the weather? Opt to include an exclusive covered patio! Next to the breakfast/kitchen combination area are two more linen closets, and the entry to your Master bedroom and bathroom with a huge walk-in closet. Retreat to your master bathroom that includes the option of double vanities, a shower/bathtub enclosure, and an additional linen closet. If. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,261
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,888
• − Property taxes: −$3,987
• − Insurance: −$1,329
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,101
• − Management: −$2,101
• − Depreciation: −$7,732
• Taxable loss: −$5,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,410
• After-tax cash flow: $116/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It's move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and landscaping to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Royal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,059
• Composite: 19.55/100
• National rank: #8760
• State rank: #744 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pattison

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #15789

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Waller County · 18,767 people
• City population: 18,767
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,767
• Household income: $84,490
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 20.0

Population outlook (Waller County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,772 people
• By 2030: 67,616 · +11.3%
• By 2040: 82,283 · +35.4%
• By 2050: 98,276 · +61.7%
• By 2075: 142,860 · +135.1%
• By 2100: 175,596 · +188.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% White 41% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 32% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Waller

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.0) · D 37.0% · R 62.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.2pp · 2024: -25.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.0 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+28.6 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+7.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -125.28%
• Current HPI: 204.8709
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $244,990 Zillow