1215 Paradise · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,564 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1979 0.33 ac lot $192/sqft · 13% below area Est $344k · 13% under $2/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Canyon Lake Hills sits on a large lot with a stand of hugh oak trees in the front yard that provide shade for almost half the yard, roof replaced in 2022 AC replaced in 2019, overall it would be a perfect fit for a new family or a family ready to down size.

Key facts

• Ac replaced
• Large lot
• Huge oak trees

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• HUGE OAK TREES
• ROOF REPLACED
• AC REPLACED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (11.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.2% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Startzville El (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 465 students, 68% FRL); Mt Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C+, #281 of 1,662 statewide, top 18%, 808 students, 49% FRL); Canyon Lake H S (math 46% / reading 56%, grade D+, #482 of 1,632 statewide, top 30%, 1,038 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 31% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1029 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,773 (22.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.69%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $343,604
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -12.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
596 Riviera Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,477 (-6%)	10mo	$349,900	$237	81
3187 Lakeview Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	0mo	$649,885	$401	73
817 Scenic Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,557 (-0%)	1mo	$389,000	$250	66
1909 Canyon Lake Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+4%)	12mo	$375,000	$231	62
648 Bald Eagle	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,556 (-0%)	6mo	$299,900	$193	59
616 Hummingbird Hl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,481 (-5%)	15mo	$299,500	$202	58
760 Lookout	0.42mi	3/3.0	1,685 (+8%)	9mo	$354,900	$211	56
545 Wagon Wheel	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,372 (-12%)	13mo	$239,000	$174	50
3091 Lakeview	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-14%)	3mo	$324,000	$240	49
354 Paradise	0.52mi	3/3.0	1,368 (-12%)	8mo	$165,000	$121	44
1568 Blueridge Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-14%)	2mo	$280,000	$208	43
282 Lighthouse	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	7mo	$275,000	$205	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-67,397
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.19×
• Total profit: $-100,374
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1029
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,318 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$319 /mo · $3,829/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$2
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,556

Max offer price $266,735

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-103	+0% $-188	+5% $-273	+10% $-358
Rent	-10% $-371	-5% $-280	+0% $-188	+5% $-97	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-37	-0.5pp $-112	base $-188	+0.5pp $-266	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
693 Riviera Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1776	$2,995	$1.69	46d	1	0.07mi
2676 Woodcrest Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,100	$1.78	46d	1	0.22mi
1569 Comfort Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	20d	1	0.29mi
1569 Comfort Unit Na Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	17d	1	0.29mi
4348 Morningside Way Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1166	$1,550	$1.33	22d	1	0.31mi
612 Mockingbird Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1420	$1,950	$1.37	13d	1	0.43mi
1198 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,775	$1.47	6d	1	0.49mi
1104 Blueridge Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	46d	1	0.52mi
1235 Green Hill Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	46d	1	0.53mi
2059 Glenn Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	2016	$2,750	$1.36	26d	1	0.99mi
520 Lake Frst Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	3.0	1606	$2,900	$1.81	1d	1	1.13mi
1392 Hillcrest Frst Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2050	$4,000	$1.95	46d	1	1.21mi
2488 Waterfront Park Dr Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	3.0	2134	$3,250	$1.52	21d	1	1.24mi
662 Hillclimb Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.5	1345	$1,950	$1.45	46d	1	1.34mi
1219 Lakeside Dr E Canyon Lake, TX	4.0	2.0	1216	$2,180	$1.79	6d	1	1.40mi
1288 Canyon Springs Dr Unit 1351234P Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1539	$4,129	$2.68	17d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $2 · $24/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $300,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $300,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $300,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $300,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $300,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $300,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $300,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $300,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $300,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    well maintained 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Canyon Lake Hills sits on a large lot with a stand of hugh oak trees in the front yard that provide shade for almost half the yard, roof replaced in 2022 AC replaced in 2019, overall it would be a perfect fit for a new family or a family ready to down size.

17. 2021-07-01
    soldstatus
18. 2013-04-30
    soldstatus
19. 2013-01-23
    historical
20. 2013-01-05
    listed $105,000
21. 2008-09-05
    soldstatus
22. 2008-09-02
    soldstatus
23. 2008-06-04
    listed $139,000
24. 2008-05-28
    historical
25. 2007-10-26
    listed $139,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,829 · $319/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,661/yr (+$138/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$3,829
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,225
• − Management: −$2,225
• − HOA: −$24
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$7,522
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,805
• After-tax cash flow: $-454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+115.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $300,000 CTXMLS
• 2021-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-04-30 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2013-01-23 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2013-01-05 Listed $105,000 LERA
• 2008-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-09-02 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2008-06-04 Listed $139,000 LERA
• 2008-05-28 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2007-10-26 Listed $139,000 LERA

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,829 · -12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.