15159 Sara Ln · Saucier, MS 39574

$146,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,824 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2000 1.60 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful country living on 1.6 acres, but only 1 mile to new HWY 67. Home features an open layout, formal dining & living rooms plus breakfast area, split bedroom plan, freshly painted, laminate flooring, landscaped yard w/ mature oaks, front & rear decks for that family BBQ & lg storage shed.

Key facts

• Extra storage
• Country-style living
• 1.6 acres

Tags

• 1.6 ACRES
• TWO SHEDS
• EXTRA STORAGE
• YARD SPACE
• COUNTRY-STYLE LIVING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Building area approximately 1,824 (public records); Lot about 1.6 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; Water connected; Cable available/connected; Phone available; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: Mobile home (manufactured house); One level
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Metal roof; Built by owner (year source: owner)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $146k).
• Recommended offer: $144k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.4% in Saucier — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#91 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,810 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.65%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $580,032
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20540 Turan Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (-14%)	13mo	$499,000	$318	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,826
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $38,799
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39574

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,823 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$182 /mo · $2,190/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,277

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $146,000 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $146,000 Active 912-char remark
3. 2021-09-22
   historical
4. 2015-12-08
   listed $82,500
5. 2012-10-01
   soldstatus
6. 2012-09-19
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   Peaceful country living on 1.6 acres, but only 1 mile to new HWY 67. Home features an open layout, formal dining & living rooms plus breakfast area, split bedroom plan, freshly painted, laminate flooring, landscaped yard w/ mature oaks, front & rear decks for that family BBQ & lg storage shed.

7. 2012-03-24
   listed $77,500

   Show marketing remark (306 chars)

   Peaceful country living on 1.6 acres, but only 1 mile to new HWY 67. Home features an open layout, formal dining & living rooms plus breakfast area, split bedroom plan, freshly painted, laminate flooring, landscaped yard w/ mature oaks, front & rear decks for that family BBQ & lg storage shed.

8. 2008-07-14
   soldstatus
9. 2008-07-11
   soldstatus
10. 2008-02-11
    listed $76,750
11. 2005-01-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$2,190
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,750
• − Management: −$1,750
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable income: $3,029
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$727
• After-tax cash flow: $4,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Saucier

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #91
• US rank: #11386

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,830

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.24%
• Current HPI: 206.218
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+90.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-12 Listed $146,000 MLSU
• 2021-09-22 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2015-12-08 Listed $82,500 MLSU
• 2012-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-09-19 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2012-03-24 Listed $77,500 MLSU
• 2008-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-07-11 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2008-02-11 Listed $76,750 MLSU
• 2005-01-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records