2220 Ripple Creek Dr · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$157,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,071 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1967 7,148 sqft lot Est $220k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in an established neighborhood close to Brazos Town Center shopping and dining. This charming home offers comfortable living with functional spaces throughout. The spacious living room featuring a vaulted ceiling and large walk-in closet. The kitchen opens to the generous size dining room which flows seamlessly into the living room for an open concept feel creating an ideal layout for everyday living. The primary bedroom features a private half bath and closet. Generous size secondary bedrooms. The hall bath includes a tub and shower combination. Step outside to enjoy the oversized covered patio and great backyard perfect for outdoor living and entertaining. 2 car attached garage wi

Key facts

• Private half bath
• Open concept
• Vaulted ceiling

Tags

• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• VAULTED CEILING
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN CONCEPT
• PRIVATE HALF BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Additional parking; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One-story entry; Brick construction; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Built in 1967; Brick exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fully fenced private yard; Fence in back yard; Paved driveway; Private yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12x10); Bedroom on first floor (12x9); Bedroom on first floor (11x9)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Kitchen/family room combo; Laminate counters; Primary bedroom with bath; Tub with shower; Vaulted ceilings; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Living/dining room; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $242 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 716 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.59%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,555
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1921 Ripple Creek Dr	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,016 (-5%)	2mo	$222,700	$219	78
1733 Jones St	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,128 (+5%)	3mo	$150,000	$133	68
2402 Jones St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+12%)	12mo	$244,900	$205	68
1709 Klauke St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,052 (-2%)	8mo	$172,900	$164	65
1610 Marilyn St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+1%)	16mo	$189,000	$175	62
1917 Klauke Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,195 (+12%)	12mo	$248,000	$208	61
2009 Jones St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,201 (+12%)	11mo	$249,900	$208	61
1909 Briar Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+14%)	21mo	$227,000	$185	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-14,988
• Equity at exit: $23,484

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-12,100
• Equity at exit: $13,618

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 716
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,304/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $287	+0% $242	+5% $198	+10% $153
Rent	-10% $110	-5% $176	+0% $242	+5% $309	+10% $375
Rate	-1.0pp $322	-0.5pp $282	base $242	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4114 Brumbelow St Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,700	$1.38	6d	1	0.19mi
3412 Avenue R Unit R Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,775	$1.21	44d	1	0.40mi
1615 Junker St Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,750	$1.49	44d	1	0.46mi
2907 Airport Ave Rosenberg, TX	2.0	1.0	865	$1,105	$1.28	44d	1	0.52mi
3828 Avenue N Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,650	$1.33	44d	1	0.55mi
2009 Tremont Ct Rosenberg, TX	3.0	1.5	1425	$1,701	$1.19	22d	1	0.91mi
3419 Fountains Dr Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	953	$1,920	$2.01	11d	8	1.11mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 3476 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	822	$1,310	$1.59	44d	1	1.14mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 3452 Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,720	$1.46	44d	1	1.14mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 424 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	933	$1,245	$1.33	6d	1	1.14mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 3174 Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,677	$1.48	3d	1	1.14mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 2174 Rosenberg, TX	2.0	2.0	933	$1,237	$1.33	3d	1	1.14mi
1202 3rd St Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,575	$1.12	25d	1	1.45mi
27315 Southwest Fwy Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,570	$1.33	44d	1	1.49mi
4720 Reading Rd Rosenberg, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,422	$1.53	2d	15	1.49mi
4726 Reading Rd Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1060	$1,275	$1.20	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   status Active
3. 2026-05-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $157,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,882 · $240/mo
• Expected delta: +$578/yr (+$48/mo · 25.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$2,304
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable income: $421
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $157,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,304 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.