2979 Ironweed Cir · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$284,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,443 sqft · SingleFamily · 66 Days on market

Built 2026 7,988 sqft lot $197/sqft · 13% below area Est $327k · 13% under $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Julia is a one-story floor plan featured in our new Reserve at Brookhaven community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,443 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. The kitchen is fully equipped with white shaker-style cabinets, quartz, countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for storage. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for children and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. The outdoor area includes a covered patio and spacious backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertainment. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorbell, keyless entry door lock, programmable thermostat, a touchscreen control device, a smart light switch, and more. Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. Don't wait, contact us today to make Reserve at Brookhaven your new home!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Walk in closet
• Private bathroom

Tags

• WHITE SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• CENTER ISLAND
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-296 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (15.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (23.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Meadow Elementary School (math 59% / reading 65%, grade B, #608 of 2,144 statewide, top 29%, 710 students, 51% FRL); Ransom Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 1,224 students, 49% FRL); J. M. Tate Senior High School (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,110 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 511 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $217,715 (23.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,308
• List price: $284,900
• Delta: -12.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2913 Ironweed Cir	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,443 (0%)	1mo	$294,900	$204	87
2905 Ironweed Cir	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,439 (-0%)	2mo	$296,000	$206	82
3025 Serviceberry Rd	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	6mo	$297,900	$190	80
3057 Serviceberry Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	8mo	$304,900	$194	74
3073 Serviceberry Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	8mo	$309,900	$198	72
2929 Ironweed Cir	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	1mo	$289,900	$223	72
3085 Serviceberry Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	9mo	$304,900	$194	70
3142 Serviceberry Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	8mo	$289,900	$185	65
3174 Serviceberry Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	6mo	$284,900	$182	64
3150 Serviceberry Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	9mo	$314,900	$201	63
3476 Blaney Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+3%)	14mo	$225,000	$152	61
3122 Serviceberry Rd	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	16mo	$311,865	$199	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-64,952
• Equity at exit: $42,480

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-80,578
• Equity at exit: $24,633

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,177 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$356 /mo · $4,274/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $-296

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,552

Max offer price $242,078

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-99	-5% $-197	+0% $-296	+5% $-394	+10% $-493
Rent	-10% $-468	-5% $-382	+0% $-296	+5% $-210	+10% $-124
Rate	-1.0pp $-152	-0.5pp $-223	base $-296	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3021 Serviceberry Rd Cantonment, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,250	$1.26	25d	1	0.04mi
9907 Cali Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0	1677	$2,160	$1.29	15d	1	1.22mi
9499 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,675	$1.10	15d	1	1.24mi
9433 Nature Creek Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,900	$1.22	15d	1	1.27mi
9525 Nature Creek Cir Pensacola, FL	3.0	2.5	1524	$1,750	$1.15	15d	1	1.29mi
5943 Ravines Ln Pensacola, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2080	$2,207	$1.06	15d	9	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $284,900 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $284,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $289,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $294,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $294,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-25
    price $302,900 1488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1488 chars)

    The Julia is a one-story floor plan featured in our new Reserve at Brookhaven community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,443 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. The kitchen is fully equipped with white shaker-style cabinets, quartz, countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for storage. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for children and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. The outdoor area includes a covered patio and spacious backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertainment. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorbell, keyless entry door lock, programmable thermostat, a touchscreen control device, a smart light switch, and more. Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. Don't wait, contact us today to make Reserve at Brookhaven your new home!

19. 2026-04-23
    listed $299,900 Active 1488-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1488 chars)

    The Julia is a one-story floor plan featured in our new Reserve at Brookhaven community. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts 1,443 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The open concept blends the kitchen, living, and dining areas seamlessly, allowing natural light to illuminate the space. The kitchen is fully equipped with white shaker-style cabinets, quartz, countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for storage. The owner's suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, granite countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for children and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. The outdoor area includes a covered patio and spacious backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertainment. The Smart Home Connect Technology System includes your video doorbell, keyless entry door lock, programmable thermostat, a touchscreen control device, a smart light switch, and more. Homes include a one-year builder warranty and a 10-year structural warranty. Don't wait, contact us today to make Reserve at Brookhaven your new home!

20. 2026-04-17
    price $299,900 1163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1163 chars)

    Welcome to 2979 Ironweed Cir! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home boasts 1,443 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The kitchen is fully equipped with white shaker-style cabinets, quartz countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for storage. The owner’s suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, quartz countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for children and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. This home includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. Residents will enjoy exceptional community amenities, including a resort-style pool, a shaded cabana, and a playground. Schedule your tour today!

21. 2026-04-16
    listed $297,900 Active 1163-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1163 chars)

    Welcome to 2979 Ironweed Cir! This 3 bedroom, 2 bath home boasts 1,443 square feet of functionality for convenient and comfortable living. As you enter the foyer, you will immediately notice the high-quality details and finishes throughout. Connected off the foyer are the study, laundry room, and garage. Continue walking down the hall and you will enter the great room. The kitchen is fully equipped with white shaker-style cabinets, quartz countertops, a center island, stainless steel appliances, and a pantry for storage. The owner’s suite is generously sized and includes a walk-in closet and private bathroom with a double sink vanity, quartz countertops, and an enclosed shower. Bedrooms two and three are perfect for children and guests. A conveniently located bathroom with a bathtub/shower combination can be found nestled between these two bedrooms. This home includes a Home is Connected smart home technology package which allows you to control your home with your smart device while near or away. Residents will enjoy exceptional community amenities, including a resort-style pool, a shaded cabana, and a playground. Schedule your tour today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$4,274
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,090
• − Management: −$2,090
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$8,563
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,055
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $302,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-23 Listed $299,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $299,900 PARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $297,900 PARMLS