The Pearson Plan · Pinehurst, TX 77354

$274,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,701 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Dining area
• Backyard

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• DINING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• OPTIONAL CENTER ISLAND
• FAMILY ROOM
• BACKYARD

🏗️ New construction. The $274,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-423 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, crime D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$49k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,037 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.40%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,990
• List price: $274,990
• Delta: -2.83%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Ashley Branch St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+5%)	1mo	$291,990	$164	70
574 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-5%)	1mo	$269,990	$167	66
530 Southern Magnolia Way	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	3mo	$263,990	$164	66
715 Michelia St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,588 (-7%)	2mo	$285,990	$180	65
739 Hackberry Branch Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-0%)	3mo	$271,990	$160	65
514 Southern Magnolia Way	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	3mo	$265,990	$166	64
706 Umbrella Tree Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	0mo	$258,990	$161	64
544 Flower Reed Ct	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+2%)	4mo	$289,990	$167	60
707 Hackberry Branch Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,732 (+2%)	1mo	$274,990	$159	58
430 Southern Magnolia Way	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (-6%)	4mo	$260,990	$162	57
716 Autumn Cherry Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-14%)	2mo	$255,000	$173	47
582 Bluebell Maiden Ct	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,914 (+12%)	2mo	$297,990	$156	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $122,130
• Equity at exit: $254,940

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.69×
• Total profit: $371,636
• Equity at exit: $549,787

Cash invested: $79,237 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$354 /mo · $4,245/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,476

Max offer price $221,812

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-227	-5% $-325	+0% $-423	+5% $-521	+10% $-618
Rent	-10% $-576	-5% $-499	+0% $-423	+5% $-346	+10% $-269
Rate	-1.0pp $-280	-0.5pp $-351	base $-423	+0.5pp $-496	+1.0pp $-571

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,748
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
273 Douglas Hills Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	1922	$1,895	$0.99	44d	1	0.57mi
764 Autumn Cherry Trl Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2196	$1,665	$0.76	44d	1	0.61mi
408 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	0.72mi
948 Oak Mist Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,000	$1.36	25d	1	0.75mi
202 Alder Laurels Cv Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2229	$2,036	$0.91	22d	1	0.76mi
359 Cumberland Forest Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,725	$1.18	25d	1	0.77mi
423 Jewett Meadow Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,781	$1.36	22d	1	0.78mi
937 Gentle Moss Dr Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,635	$1.31	5d	1	0.89mi
30906 Sweetwater Cir Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	2154	$1,949	$0.90	22d	1	1.02mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,990 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,990 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,990 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,990 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,990 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,990 Active 183 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,990 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,990 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $274,990 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,990 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,990 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $274,990 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

15. 2026-05-04
    price $289,990 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

16. 2026-02-04
    price $286,990 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

17. 2026-02-03
    price $291,990 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

18. 2026-01-16
    price $286,990 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

19. 2025-12-09
    listed $283,990 Active 452-char remark

    Show marketing remark (452 chars)

    The Pearson ranch greets you with a welcoming front porch. Thoughtfully laid out to maximize each space to the fullest, you'll find a dining area that opens to a surprisingly large kitchen with an optional center island. A family room leads to the backyard and reveals a private entry to the owner's suite with a walk-in closet and an en suite bath. Owners will find a convenient mud room and laundry just off the garage entry to maximize organization.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$4,245
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$8,232
• Taxable loss: −$10,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,444
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $291,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Listed $283,990 Zillow