813 Hatch Rd · Potsdam, NY 13676

$160,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1900

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Living room, dining room, large country kitchen with pantry. 3 bedrooms upstairs; 1 bedroom downstairs. Screened porch. Country setting with very easy access to Potsdam. Refinished wide plank hardwood floor.

Key facts

• Screened porch
• Built 1900
• Listed 21 days

Tags

• LARGE COUNTRY KITCHEN
• SCREENED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-183/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $157k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.9% in Potsdam — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#249 in NY, #3,908 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Potsdam Central School District (town): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #258 of 590 in NY (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 215 units permitted in St. Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $160k implies a 198% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $146,225 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $86,229
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $254,818
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13676

• Home prices YoY: 17.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,177/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,482

Max offer price $157,301

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,500 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,500 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,500 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,500 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,500 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,500 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,500 Active 10 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $185,500 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,500 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,500 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,500 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,177 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,177
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,404
• − Management: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$685
• After-tax cash flow: $502/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Potsdam Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3623670
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,144
• Composite: 50.05/100
• National rank: #1915
• State rank: #258 of 590 in NY

Livability — Potsdam

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #249
• US rank: #3908

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,123
• Population (ZIP): 13,408

Population outlook (St. Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,027 people
• By 2030: 107,455 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 100,492 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 94,254 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 80,175 · -27.1%
• By 2100: 63,140 · -42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lawrence

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 41.0% · R 59.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: 16.3pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+11.7 2016: R+10.8 2012: D+16.6 2008: D+16.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.01%
• Current HPI: 318.7704
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+245.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $185,500 FSBO.com
• 1999-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $53,732 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,177 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.