36 Blue Ridge Dr · Medford, NY 11763

$308,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,296 sqft · Condo public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1973 $791/mo HOA · 22% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and see this 3 bedroom 1.5 bath condo in Gated Blue Ridge. Close to shopping, transportation and major roadways

Key facts

• $791 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $308k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-193 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (11.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $308k).
• Recommended offer: $274k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#502 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Eagle Elementary School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #1,057 of 2,108 statewide, top 51%, 603 students, 40% FRL); Oregon Middle School (reading 75%, 592 students, 54% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 76% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($121k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $308k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,982 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-61,601
• Equity at exit: $45,924

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-67,107
• Equity at exit: $26,630

Cash invested: $86,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11763

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,521 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,615
• Tax from tax record: −$440 /mo · $5,277/yr
• Insurance: −$128
• HOA: −$791
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$739
• Net cashflow: $-193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,765

Max offer price $273,982

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,000
• Closing costs: $9,240
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
182 Blue Ridge Dr Unit 182 Medford, NY	3.0	1.5	1296	$3,600	$2.78	44d	1	0.11mi
1100 Lake Dr Medford, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$3,346	$3.06	1d	10	0.68mi
909 Skyline Dr Coram, NY	2.0	2.0	1307	$2,950	$2.26	18d	1	0.89mi
178 Overlook Dr Unit 178 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1435	$3,575	$2.49	1d	1	1.09mi
148 Overlook Dr Unit 148 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	1d	1	1.10mi
137 Overlook Dr Unit 137 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1445	$3,785	$2.62	44d	1	1.10mi
128 Overlook Dr Unit 128 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1445	$3,760	$2.60	44d	1	1.11mi
304 Vista View Dr Unit 304 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,835	$2.78	21d	1	1.12mi
204 Vista View Dr Unit 204 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,835	$2.78	44d	1	1.13mi
1302 Vista View Dr Unit 1302 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,465	$2.86	44d	1	1.15mi
1402 Vista View Dr Unit 1402 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1220	$3,465	$2.84	44d	1	1.18mi
144 Horizon View Dr Unit 144 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1435	$3,495	$2.44	44d	1	1.18mi
1504 Vista View Dr Unit 1504 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1220	$3,465	$2.84	44d	1	1.19mi
145 Horizon View Dr Unit 145 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1405	$3,465	$2.47	44d	1	1.19mi
1806 Vista View Dr Unit 1806 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1220	$3,465	$2.84	44d	1	1.23mi
74 Overlook Dr Unit 74 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,585	$2.50	44d	1	1.23mi
170 Horizon View Dr Farmingville, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1388	$3,890	$2.80	1d	1	1.24mi
2002 Vista View Dr Unit 2002 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,805	$2.75	44d	1	1.25mi
85 Overlook Dr Unit 85 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1455	$3,600	$2.47	1d	1	1.26mi
80 Overlook Dr Unit 80 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1455	$3,600	$2.47	1d	1	1.26mi
69 Overlook Dr Unit 69 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1455	$3,600	$2.47	44d	1	1.27mi
66 Overlook Dr Unit 66 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,420	$2.51	44d	1	1.27mi
65 Overlook Dr Unit 65 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,420	$2.51	44d	1	1.27mi
54 Overlook Dr Unit 54 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	44d	1	1.28mi
2304 Vista View Dr Unit 2304 Farmingville, NY	3.0	2.0	1212	$3,465	$2.86	44d	1	1.28mi
60 Overlook Dr Unit 60 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,570	$2.62	44d	1	1.28mi
58 Overlook Dr Unit 58 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	44d	1	1.29mi
2204 Vista View Dr Unit 2204 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1021	$2,805	$2.75	44d	1	1.29mi
91 Horizon View Dr Unit 91 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,470	$2.42	3d	1	1.30mi
53 Overlook Dr Unit 53 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1364	$3,545	$2.60	44d	1	1.30mi
79 Birchwood Rd Coram, NY	2.0	2.0	1307	$3,500	$2.68	44d	1	1.34mi
11 Horizon View Dr Unit 11 Farmingville, NY	2.0	2.0	1435	$3,495	$2.44	44d	1	1.34mi
389 Clubhouse Ct Unit 457 Coram, NY	2.0	2.0	1065	$3,150	$2.96	22d	1	1.39mi
3107 Gull Ave Medford, NY	3.0	1.0	1622	$3,900	$2.40	1d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $791 · $9,492/yr
• Likely covers: security
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-17
   price $308,000
3. 2026-03-03
   price $321,000
4. 2026-02-14
   listed $336,500 Active
5. 2000-04-05
   soldstatus $150,000
6. 1985-06-10
   soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,277 · $440/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,277 · $440/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,253
• − Property taxes: −$5,277
• − Insurance: −$1,540
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,380
• − Management: −$3,380
• − HOA: −$9,492
• − Depreciation: −$8,960
• Taxable loss: −$7,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,687
• After-tax cash flow: $-624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Medford

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #8793

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Medford, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,973
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,973
• Household income: $120,783
• Rent vs Own: 11.5% rent · 88.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 339.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 14% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 23% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -531.78%
• Current HPI: 379.1499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+242.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $308,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $321,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-14 Listed $336,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1985-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,277 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.