3628 Birch St · Brandon, MI 48348

$34,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 287 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 2024
• Listed 287 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $38,500

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section home (2 bed, 2 bath plan); Spec inventory
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,056

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $918 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brandon School District In The Counties Of Oakland And Lapee (town): math 35% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #152 of 540 in MI (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $241 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $30,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.67%
• DSCR: 6.01
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $52,805
• Equity at exit: $5,204

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.42×
• Total profit: $121,321
• Equity at exit: $3,018

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48348

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,467 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $524/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $918

Break-even live

Break-even rent $305

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3628 Birch St Unit 837 Village of Clarkston, MI	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,379	$1.31	1d	1	0.01mi
3618 Juniper St Unit 795 Village of Clarkston, MI	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	1d	1	0.04mi
3684 Willow Ct Unit 747 Village of Clarkston, MI	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,329	$1.09	1d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,900 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,900 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,900 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $34,900 Active 283 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $36,900 Active 279 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $36,900 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $36,900 Active 277 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $36,900 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $36,900 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,900 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,900 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,900 Active 270 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$524
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,408
• − Management: −$1,408
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $11,117
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,668
• After-tax cash flow: $8,342/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brandon School District In The Counties Of Oakland And Lapee
• NCES district ID: 2606570
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $73,593
• Composite: 37.94/100
• National rank: #4306
• State rank: #152 of 540 in MI

Livability — Brandon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Oakland County · 1,009,092 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 24,574
• Household income: $129,410
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.65%
• Current HPI: 196.4302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B