Aria Plan · Apison, TN 37302

$342,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,618 sqft · SingleFamily · 204 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Aria floor plan is now available in Apison, TN at Prairie Pass Express. This single-level split floorplan features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, with a spacious area of 1,618 square feet. The primary bedroom includes a large walk-in closet and a comfortable bathroom. The open-concept design of the kitchen, living, and dining areas gives the home an even more spacious and welcoming feel. The kitchen is equipped with a beautiful island that comes with countertop seating, perfect for entertaining. Additionally, the plan includes a covered patio at the back of the house. A laundry room is conveniently located off the foyer for easy access. * D. R.

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Walk-in closet
• Laundry room

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• COVERED PATIO
• LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $342,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,188.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $343k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-391 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $323k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $282k (17.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $282k (17.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 4.1% in Apison — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#106 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Apison Elementary School (math 65% / reading 61%, grade B, #47 of 952 statewide, top 5%, 652 students, 0% FRL); Sequoyah High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #273 of 332 statewide, top 84%, 226 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 9d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 204 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $282,247 (17.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 204 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.42%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,188
• List price: $342,990
• Delta: -9.55%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10700 Prairie Lake Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,618 (0%)	4mo	$348,120	$215	94
10717 Prairie Lake Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,618 (0%)	3mo	$325,000	$201	91
10701 Prairie Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (-8%)	1mo	$324,665	$217	79
10696 Prairie Lake Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	2mo	$325,000	$184	75
10705 Prairie Lake Dr	0.05mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	4mo	$349,900	$198	74
10672 Prairie Lake Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	1mo	$362,790	$206	73
10791 Upland Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,749 (+8%)	14mo	$363,260	$208	68
10712 Prairie Lake Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+14%)	4mo	$347,500	$188	66
10745 Upland Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,764 (+9%)	11mo	$390,000	$221	66
10778 Upland Drive Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+14%)	6mo	$390,980	$211	61
10749 Upland Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (+14%)	9mo	$379,050	$205	60
10750 Upland Drive Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,821 (+12%)	9mo	$379,325	$208	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-86,288
• Equity at exit: $56,538

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-107,009
• Equity at exit: $32,785

Cash invested: $106,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.3 mo (14%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $358,495 ($205/sqft)
• Median days on market: 204 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +14.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37302

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,822 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,989
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$474 /mo · $5,688/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-391

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,317

Max offer price $322,648

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-129	-5% $-260	+0% $-391	+5% $-522	+10% $-653
Rent	-10% $-614	-5% $-502	+0% $-391	+5% $-279	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-200	-0.5pp $-294	base $-391	+0.5pp $-489	+1.0pp $-589

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,797
• Closing costs: $11,376
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10815 Upland Dr Apison, TN	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,895	$1.29	15d	1	0.19mi
10815 Upland Dr Apison, TN	4.0	2.0	2250	$2,895	$1.29	8d	1	0.19mi
3753 Hawks Creek Dr Apison, TN	3.0	2.5	2164	$2,995	$1.38	154d	1	0.83mi
11114 E Brainerd Rd Apison, TN	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,800	$1.48	0d	1	1.03mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	0d	1	1.43mi
1408 Centerstone Ln Apison, TN	4.0	2.5	2231	$2,875	$1.29	5d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $342,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: One-story planAddress: Apison, TN 37302
• Exterior features: Living area: 1618

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: AriaActive new-construction plan

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $342,990 Active 204 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $342,990 Active 203 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $342,990 Active 202 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $342,990 Active 201 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $342,990 Active 200 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $342,990 Active 198 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $342,990 Active 197 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $342,990 Active 196 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $342,990 Active 195 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $342,990 Active 194 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $342,990 Active 193 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $342,990 Active 192 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $342,990 Active 191 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $342,990 Active 190 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $342,990 Active 189 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $342,990 Active 188 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $342,990 Active 187 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $342,990 Active 186 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $342,990 Active 185 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $342,990 Active 184 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $342,990 Active 183 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $342,990 Active 182 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $342,990 Active 181 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $342,990 Active 180 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $342,990 Active 179 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $342,990 Active 178 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $342,990 Active 177 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $342,990 Active 176 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $342,990 Active 175 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $342,990 Active 174 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $342,990 Active 173 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $342,990 Active 172 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $342,990 Active 171 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $342,990 Active 170 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $342,990 Active 169 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $342,990 Active 168 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $342,990 Active 167 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $342,990 Active 166 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $342,990 Active 165 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $342,990 Active 164 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $342,990 Active 163 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $342,990 Active 162 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $342,990 Active 161 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $342,990 Active 160 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $342,990 Active 159 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $342,990 Active 158 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $342,990 Active 157 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $342,990 Active 156 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $342,990 Active 155 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $342,990 Active 153 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,240
• − Property taxes: −$5,688
• − Insurance: −$1,896
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,710
• − Management: −$2,710
• − Depreciation: −$11,031
• Taxable loss: −$11,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,737
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

The home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. The exterior siding, roof, flooring, interior walls/paint, and systems are all in good condition. The home is move-in ready and would benefit from painting the exterior siding and landscaping improvements to increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can improve the curb appeal and increase the resale value of the home. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Landscaping improvements can improve the curb appeal and increase the resale value of the home. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system can improve the comfort and energy efficiency of the home, which can increase the resale and rental value of the home. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Apison Elementary School B TN #47/952 Nat'l #5,998/41,679 Middle East Hamilton Middle School C- TN #24/333 Nat'l #4,042/14,009 High East Hamilton High School F TN #39/332 Nat'l #9,567/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton County
• NCES district ID: 4701590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,456
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7122
• State rank: #42 of 139 in TN

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Apison

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #10827

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apison, TN
• County: Hamilton · 393,784 people
• City population: 5,253
• Metro: Chattanooga, TN-GA
• Population (ZIP): 5,253
• Household income: $103,578
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

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Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 393,784 people
• By 2030: 412,983 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 449,502 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 484,341 · +23.0%
• By 2075: 565,746 · +43.7%
• By 2100: 618,394 · +57.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.1) · D 42.7% · R 55.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.2pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -13.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.1 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+16.6 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.96%
• Current HPI: 294.8398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $342,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: One-story planAddress: Apison, TN 37302
• Exterior features: Living area: 1618

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: AriaActive new-construction plan