2417 E 28th St · Lubbock, TX 79404

$119,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,454 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1962 7,680 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Interior paint and flooring will be completed by seller.

Key facts

• New floors
• New kitchen
• Completed fence

Tags

• OVERLOOKING DUNBAR LAKE
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW FIXTURES
• COMPLETED FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Public maintained road frontage on a city street; Zoned for single-family use
• Financial info: Details not provided
• HOA & community: Details not provided

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; Single-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built details not provided
• Exterior features: Private yard; Wood fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Details not provided
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Fireplace heating option
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Gas fireplace in the living room; See remarks (additional interior features)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($815/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (4.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ervin El (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,836 of 4,322 statewide, top 91%, 405 students, 97% FRL, charter); Dunbar College Preparatory Academy (math 16% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 430 students, 97% FRL, charter); Estacado H S (math 26% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 897 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 60% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 21% at this address vs 38% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lubbock ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $104k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,091 (4.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.43%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.22% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,214
• Equity at exit: $55,427

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $64,193
• Equity at exit: $86,616

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79404

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,856/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$240
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $102	+0% $68	+5% $34	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-22	-5% $23	+0% $68	+5% $113	+10% $158
Rate	-1.0pp $128	-0.5pp $98	base $68	+0.5pp $37	+1.0pp $5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2906 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$1,200	$1.32	44d	1	0.16mi
2806 E 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	912	$900	$0.99	44d	1	0.26mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$750	$0.69	44d	1	0.39mi
3113 Teak Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	22d	1	0.39mi
1516 E 27th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	44d	1	0.51mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	14d	1	0.98mi
3411 E 16th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,100	$0.79	22d	1	1.08mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	22d	1	1.14mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	44d	1	1.15mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	44d	1	1.17mi
2206 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$975	$0.85	45d	1	1.18mi
2211 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.21mi
2603 Elm Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,175	$0.97	44d	1	1.21mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	14d	1	1.28mi
3621 E 15th Pl Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,114	$1.08	44d	1	1.32mi
505 E 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,125	$1.17	14d	1	1.33mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	14d	1	1.39mi
1516 E 8th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,050	$0.90	22d	1	1.43mi
602 Walnut Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1172	$1,100	$0.94	44d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   listed $119,900 Active
3. 2026-03-20
   price $119,997
4. 2025-12-16
   price $125,000
5. 2025-08-12
   soldstatus $104,017
6. 2022-12-27
   soldstatus
7. 2016-10-27
   soldstatus
8. 2016-10-06
   soldstatus 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Interior paint and flooring will be completed by seller.

9. 2016-05-09
   listed $69,900 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   Interior paint and flooring will be completed by seller.

10. 2007-11-06
    soldstatus $54,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,856 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,194 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 18.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,691
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,856
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,095
• − Management: −$1,095
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,159
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$278
• After-tax cash flow: $1,093/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,529
• Household income: $51,630
• Rent vs Own: 31.0% rent · 69.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 366.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Black 22% White 20% Two or more races 17% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 0%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.22%
• Current HPI: 163.854
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+120.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $119,900 LARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $119,997 LARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $125,000 LARMLS
• 2025-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $104,017 Public Records
• 2022-12-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-10-06 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2016-05-09 Listed $69,900 LARMLS
• 2007-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $54,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,856 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.