20805 Bonanza Dr E · Prairie Ridge, WA 98391

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,336 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1987 8,250 sqft lot Est $374k · 33% under $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Complete Fixer, Looking for a project this is it! 3 Bedrooms/ 2 baths. Great neighborhood, close to shopping and amenities. Great layout, master on one side with en suite, open floor plan great for entertaining.

Key facts

• 8,250 sq ft lot
• Built 1987

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $394 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.3% in Prairie Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#401 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $250,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,080
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20916 106th St E	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+15%)	6mo	$370,000	$241	63
20309 113th St E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	3mo	$360,000	$250	59
20607 97th	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,286 (-4%)	11mo	$360,000	$280	58
10207 217th Avenue Ct E #11	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+1%)	15mo	$122,000	$91	58
10602 203rd Ave E	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	7mo	$413,000	$359	55
20307 113th St E	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+13%)	2mo	$447,500	$296	51
11312 201st Avenue Ct E	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-3%)	13mo	$405,000	$313	48
20402 114th St E	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-11%)	4mo	$443,000	$374	46
9512 203rd Ave E	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	24mo	$399,000	$285	39
10020 219th Avenue Ct E #37	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-10%)	14mo	$179,500	$150	37
10120 218th Ave E #21	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (+13%)	10mo	$173,500	$115	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,953
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $26,165
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98391

• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 736
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,817 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$316 /mo · $3,795/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$592
• Net cashflow: $394

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10203 217th Ave Ct E Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1620	$2,950	$1.82	2d	1	0.60mi
19717 100th St E Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,725	$1.51	10d	1	0.72mi
9409 202nd Ave E Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,700	$2.16	2d	1	0.77mi
9800 219th Ave E Bonney Lake, WA	2.0	1.0	905	$1,609	$1.78	5d	1	0.82mi
9803 221st Ave E Bonney Lake, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0	1060	$2,475	$2.33	44d	2	0.86mi
20021 117th St E Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,550	$1.90	2d	1	0.94mi
19016 106 Street Ct E Bonney Lake, WA	2.0	1.5	1028	$2,150	$2.09	2d	1	1.12mi
19003 107th St E Unit 19003 Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,100	$1.62	2d	1	1.15mi
9412 Angeline Rd E Bonney Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1414	$2,200	$1.56	2d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-16
   listed $250,000 Active
3. 2018-03-16
   soldstatus $195,000 Sold
4. 2018-03-16
   soldstatus $195,000
5. 2018-01-20
   status Pending
6. 2018-01-18
   price $199,950
7. 2018-01-03
   listed $209,950 Active
8. 2006-04-21
   soldstatus $138,950
9. 2006-04-21
   soldstatus $138,950
10. 2006-01-01
    listed $129,950
11. 2001-09-12
    soldstatus $74,000
12. 1994-03-03
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,795 · $316/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,795 · $316/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,795
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,705
• − Management: −$2,705
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $878
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$211
• After-tax cash flow: $4,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Prairie Ridge

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #401
• US rank: #16033

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Prairie Ridge, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 59,240
• Household income: $135,037
• Rent vs Own: 14.3% rent · 85.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -565.91%
• Current HPI: 294.2062
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.47%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-16 Listed $250,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-16 Sold (MLS) $195,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-18 Price Changed $199,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-03 Listed $209,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $138,950 Public Records
• 2006-04-21 Sold (MLS) $138,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-01 Listed $129,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-12 Sold (Public Records) $74,000 Public Records
• 1994-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,795 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.