512 Mississippi St · San Francisco, CA 94107

$1,695,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1909 2,500 sqft lot $1017/sqft · 25% below area Est $2377k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Set on a quiet stretch of Mississippi Street in Potrero Hill, this bright and inviting single-family home unfolds across three levels, offering a flexible layout and seamless indoor-outdoor living. The main level is designed for connection, with an open living and dining area that flows into a well-appointed kitchen featuring updated appliances, generous storage, and a casual breakfast peninsula. A bedroom and full bath on this floor provide versatility for guests, work-from-home, or everyday living. Just beyond, a large deck extends the living space outdoors and overlooks a beautifully landscaped, level backyardlush, private, and ideal for entertaining or unwinding. Upstairs, two spacious

Key facts

• Large deck
• 2,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1909

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• LARGE DECK
• LANDSCAPED LEVEL BACKYARD
• PRIMARY SUITE RETREAT
• DIRECT ACCESS TO THE GARDEN

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence; Detached property; Built in 1909
• Construction: 1909 construction
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 2,500 sq ft

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Entry level at ground floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.70M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-68k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $692k (59.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $759k (55.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $692k (59.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.9%/yr); 140 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,585/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($183k/yr) (locally 1851% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $93k of equity ($12k loan paydown + $82k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$150k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 33y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1909 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $692,295 (59.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1909 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.35%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 18.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,377,363
• List price: $1,695,000
• Delta: -28.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
512 Mississippi St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,765 (+6%)	0mo	$2,400,000	$1,360	90
619 Connecticut St	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,846 (+11%)	1mo	$2,553,525	$1,383	69
567 Kansas St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (+3%)	3mo	$3,010,000	$1,755	65
611 Pennsylvania Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,447 (-13%)	4mo	$1,450,000	$1,002	64
1392 Rhode Island St	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,641 (-2%)	2mo	$1,750,000	$1,066	58
549 Kansas St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,514 (-9%)	0mo	$2,760,000	$1,823	56
986 Carolina St	0.39mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,755 (+5%)	13mo	$1,650,000	$940	53
507 Potrero Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (+4%)	6mo	$1,705,000	$986	50
461 Vermont St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (-9%)	6mo	$1,560,000	$1,028	48
764 Arkansas St	0.30mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,457 (-13%)	12mo	$1,895,000	$1,301	45
1145 Wisconsin St	0.52mi	4/4.0	1,875 (+12%)	7mo	$2,390,000	$1,275	41
435 Vermont St	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,860 (+12%)	15mo	$2,130,000	$1,145	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.81% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $50,935
• Equity at exit: $940,961

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $572,084
• Equity at exit: $1,608,014

Cash invested: $474,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94107

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Rents YoY: 18.9%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 18.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,585 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,889
• Tax from tax record: −$2,074 /mo · $24,883/yr
• Insurance: −$706
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,593
• Net cashflow: $-5,676

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,770

Max offer price $692,295

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,717	-5% $-5,196	+0% $-5,676	+5% $-6,156	+10% $-6,636
Rent	-10% $-6,275	-5% $-5,976	+0% $-5,676	+5% $-5,376	+10% $-5,077
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,822	-0.5pp $-5,245	base $-5,676	+0.5pp $-6,115	+1.0pp $-6,562

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $423,750
• Closing costs: $50,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
454 Pennsylvania Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1388	$8,950	$6.45	25d	1	0.09mi
800 Indiana St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	952	$7,241	$7.61	0d	1	0.19mi
696 De Haro St #1611 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1515	$6,580	$4.34	8d	1	0.37mi
603 Tennessee St Unit 305 San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.5	1230	$8,000	$6.50	25d	1	0.41mi
1 Henry Adams St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	873	$6,931	$7.93	2d	3	0.81mi
830 Alabama St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1465	$9,500	$6.48	44d	1	0.92mi
855 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$7,140	$7.45	2d	5	0.97mi
673 Brannan St San Francisco, CA	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.0	1302	$6,153	$4.72	2d	2	1.08mi
23 Boardman Pl Unit LTBP23F San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1050	$4,700	$4.48	44d	1	1.12mi
255 King St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.5	1228	$8,160	$6.64	3d	1	1.14mi
569-571 Capp St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1600	$6,995	$4.37	3d	1	1.25mi
725 Capp St San Francisco, CA	4.0	2.0	1350	$5,490	$4.07	44d	1	1.27mi
471 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2140	$11,000	$5.14	16d	1	1.28mi
3436 19th St Unit A San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$7,225	$5.78	21d	1	1.38mi
454 Holladay Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	2.0	1500	$8,500	$5.67	19d	1	1.39mi
2018 Oakdale Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$4,995	$3.84	44d	1	1.43mi
922 Valencia St San Francisco, CA	3.0	3.0	1100	$8,450	$7.68	44d	1	1.46mi
922 Valencia St Apt C San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1300	$7,950	$6.12	44d	1	1.46mi
922 Valencia St Unit A San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1250	$8,450	$6.76	44d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-05-08
   listed $1,695,000 Active 1469-char remark
2. 2024-11-19
   historical $7,500
3. 2024-11-15
   status Active
4. 2024-11-13
   historical $7,500
5. 2024-11-13
   listed $7,500
6. 2024-11-13
   listed $7,500
7. 2024-09-13
   listed $1,875,000 Active
8. 2024-07-10
   historical
9. 2024-06-10
   price $1,975,000
10. 2024-05-09
    listed $2,150,000 Active
11. 2016-11-14
    soldstatus $1,760,000 Closed
12. 2016-11-14
    soldstatus $1,760,000
13. 2016-10-17
    status Pending
14. 2016-09-29
    listed $1,679,000 Active
15. 2001-06-19
    soldstatus $635,000
16. 2001-06-19
    soldstatus $635,000
17. 2001-05-16
    historical
18. 2001-04-19
    listed $625,000
19. 1993-09-22
    listed $319,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $24,883 · $2,074/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $24,883 · $2,074/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $91,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$94,946
• − Property taxes: −$24,883
• − Insurance: −$8,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,282
• − Management: −$7,282
• − Depreciation: −$49,309
• Taxable loss: −$101,152
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$24,277
• After-tax cash flow: $-43,837/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 31,823
• Household income: $182,897
• Rent vs Own: 64.3% rent · 35.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1851.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Asian 32% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 36% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Chinese 12% Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.81%
• Current HPI: 192.3569
• Rent YoY: ▲ 18.89%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+652.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Sold (MLS) $2,400,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $1,695,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-11-19 Rental Removed $7,500 LISTANZA
• 2024-11-15 Relisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2024-11-13 Rental Removed $7,500 YOUGOTLISTINGS
• 2024-11-13 Listed for Rent $7,500 LISTANZA
• 2024-11-13 Listed for Rent $7,500 YOUGOTLISTINGS
• 2024-09-13 Listed $1,875,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-07-10 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2024-06-10 Price Changed $1,975,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-05-09 Listed $2,150,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2016-11-14 Sold (Public Records) $1,760,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-14 Sold (MLS) $1,760,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2016-10-17 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2016-09-29 Listed $1,679,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2001-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $635,000 Public Records
• 2001-06-19 Sold (MLS) $635,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2001-05-16 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2001-04-19 Listed $625,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1993-09-22 Listed $319,000 San Francisco MLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $24,883 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.